Despite a gut-punch loss to archrival UNC, Duke basketball remains firmly entrenched as one of the top contenders in the NCAA Tournament picture. The Blue Devils might have taken their first conference loss of the season, but the bigger story is just how strong their overall résumé still looks heading into the second week of February.
Let’s set the scene: Duke entered the Feb. 7 showdown with North Carolina riding high, ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll and No. 6 in the USA TODAY Sports rankings. But in a game that lived up to the rivalry’s reputation, it was UNC’s Seth Trimble who stole the spotlight, drilling a go-ahead three with 0.4 seconds left to hand Duke a 71-68 loss. It was a heartbreaker-no question-but it didn’t shake the Blue Devils’ standing among the nation’s elite.
With a 21-2 overall record and a 10-1 mark in ACC play, Duke is still very much in control of its postseason destiny. The road ahead includes a trip to Pittsburgh on Tuesday, followed by a high-stakes home matchup against Clemson on Saturday. Both games offer opportunities to not only bounce back but to further solidify their case for a top seed in March.
Duke’s NCAA Tournament Résumé: Elite Company
Here’s where things get impressive. Duke currently sits at No. 3 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, a key metric the selection committee leans on heavily.
The Blue Devils are 10-2 in Quadrant 1 games-that’s not just good, it’s best in the country. No other team has hit double digits in Quad 1 wins.
And when it comes to taking care of business against everyone else? Duke is a perfect 11-0 in Quadrants 2 through 4.
That kind of consistency, especially against top-tier opponents, is what separates the true contenders from the rest of the pack. This isn’t just a team beating up on weaker competition-they’re thriving against the best.
Bracketology Breakdown: Duke Still a No. 1 Seed
Despite the recent loss, bracketologists across the board are still bullish on Duke. And it’s not just one or two projections-this is a consensus.
- ESPN: Joe Lunardi has Duke as a No. 1 seed in the East Region, opening the tournament in Greenville against projected No. 16 seed UT Martin.
- CBS Sports: Also pegs Duke as a No. 1 seed in the East.
- USA TODAY: Keeps Duke on the top line in the East Region, with a first-round matchup in Washington D.C. against either Merrimack or Morgan State.
- On3: Another projection with Duke as a No. 1 seed in Greenville, facing Harvard in the opening round.
- EvanMiya: Has Duke ranked No. 4 in overall resume quality, projecting them as a 1 or 2 seed.
- Torvik (Bart Torvik’s T-Ranketology): Projects Duke as a No. 1 seed.
- Bracket Matrix: This composite index tracks 58 different bracket projections-and Duke is a No. 1 seed in all of them.
That kind of across-the-board support is rare, especially after a loss. It speaks volumes about the strength of Duke’s schedule, the quality of their wins, and the respect they command nationally.
What’s Next?
The loss to UNC might sting, but it’s not a setback-it’s a reminder that even the top teams can get clipped in a rivalry game. The Blue Devils have two more key ACC games this week, and both offer a chance to reinforce their standing as a top seed. If they handle business against Pitt and Clemson, they’ll continue to control their path to a No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday.
Duke’s blend of elite talent, resume depth, and battle-tested experience makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the country. One loss isn’t going to change that. If anything, it might just sharpen their focus down the stretch.