No. 1 Miami heads into Week 9 with a shot to keep its perfect season rolling, and the Hurricanes are heavy favorites to do it against North Carolina on Saturday night in Halloween action.
Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels are already out of the College Football Playoff picture, but they still have the kind of setup that can make life uncomfortable for a contender. North Carolina is more than a two-touchdown underdog at home, and it’s coming off an overtime loss to Syracuse in Week 8. Miami, meanwhile, comes in after a 29-point win over Pitt, a game in which Darian Mensah threw for nearly 400 yards.
The bigger picture for Miami goes beyond Saturday. Week 10 brings a ranked Notre Dame team, and that matchup looks like the one real obstacle in the Hurricanes’ path through the regular season.
If Miami gets past the Irish, it should enter the ACC title game unbeaten. But first things first: the Hurricanes have to handle business here.
Mensah has spent most of the season near the top of the Heisman conversation, and his stock climbed again after the Pitt performance. He’s completed 81.4 percent of his passes for 2,151 yards, 22 touchdowns and just one interception, while also adding two rushing scores and 73 yards on the ground.
Against Pitt, he was sharp and efficient, finishing with 387 passing yards and four touchdowns. That outing also pushed both him and receiver Malachi Toney into the top three in the odds to win the Heisman.
Miami’s offense has been a machine all year. The Hurricanes sit No. 1 in adjusted EPA/Play and own the sixth-best success rate on that side of the ball.
They also lead the nation in EPA/Pass. That’s a bad matchup for a North Carolina defense ranked 65th in EPA/Pass and 78th in overall success rate.
The Tar Heels have still found ways to stay above .500, but their resume against the best competition has been shaky. They lost to Clemson by eight and to Notre Dame by 11. Belichick’s team showed some fight in that Notre Dame game, but the offense has too many questions to inspire confidence against the top team in the country.
North Carolina ranks 80th in EPA/Pass and 106th in EPA/Rush, and it has failed to reach 30 points in five of its seven games. That’s a problem against a Miami team that’s top-10 in success rate on both sides of the ball and owns the No. 1 defense in the country in run success rate.
The Hurricanes have already posted five wins by 15 points or more this season, with their only misses against the number coming in a 13-point win over Wake Forest and an overtime win over Florida State. Even with Notre Dame looming, this looks like a spot where Miami should keep control from start to finish.
I’ll take the Hurricanes at this number.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
In Other News...
Belichick Calls Out ACC After Costly UNC Replay Controversy
The finish to North Carolinas overtime loss at Syracuse has turned into more than just a tough result on the schedule. Bill Belichick took aim at the ACCs replay setup, arguing that the league does not have enough camera angles to properly sort out the kind of goal-line and sideline plays that can decide a game in a matter of seconds.
His point was rooted in the review of Syracuses game-winning two-point conversion, where the available official footage left too much room for doubt from the booth and the ACC Replay Center. Belichick said clips circulating on social media offered better views than what the league had at its disposal, and he pushed for dedicated cameras on the critical lines the way other conferences use them to handle the most important calls. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Has A Fascinating Frontcourt Question With Alex Samodurov
Alex Samodurov has already given North Carolina a fresh look in the frontcourt, and the early impressions are enough to make his arrival worth watching. The 6-foot-11 forward from Greece comes to Chapel Hill after playing professionally for Panathinaikos, bringing a level of international seasoning that is not common for a new college big man. He also arrives with real pedigree, having helped Greece earn a bronze medal at the 2025 senior EuroBasket, and he flashed some of the reasons UNC is intrigued when he chipped in rebounds and a three-pointer in an exhibition against USC.
What comes next is the part the Tar Heels still need to sort out. UNC's staff is trying to figure out how fast Samodurov can adjust to the college game and where he fits in a frontcourt rotation that will have to account for his size, skill and experience. For a team looking for answers up front, he is an unusual addition: polished enough to raise expectations, but still new enough to leave the biggest questions unresolved. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Is Reaching A QB Crossroads Billy Edwards Can't Ignore
Billy Edwards Jr. is expected to take the first snap against Miami, a game that may also serve as his final collegiate start, and that gives North Carolina a natural moment to look ahead even while trying to finish on a steadier note. Edwards has provided the Tar Heels with a veteran presence this season, completing 60.2 percent of his passes for 1,531 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, but the offense has still battled inconsistency enough to leave bigger questions hanging over the position.
Travis Burgess is the name those questions keep circling back to. The freshman arrived as a highly regarded recruit, and the Tar Heels would be wise to find him some playing time after the Miami game so they can get a clearer read on whether he can be the quarterback of the future. For a program looking to stabilize itself, the next stretch could matter as much for evaluation as it does for the present. [Read more 🡒]