North Carolina couldn’t keep the good vibes rolling after their emotional win over Duke on Saturday. The Tar Heels walked into Miami on Tuesday night with momentum on their side-but left with a 75-66 loss and their fourth ACC defeat of the season. It was a letdown for a team that’s shown flashes of being one of the most complete squads in the country, but there’s still belief in Chapel Hill-and beyond.
While the game itself didn’t go UNC’s way, a moment off the court gave fans a reason to stay optimistic. On CBS Sports Network, former Georgetown star and current analyst Roy Hibbert made a bold statement during a panel discussion: “I think they could be a Final Four team.”
That’s not just empty praise. Hibbert, a 7-footer who knows a thing or two about elite frontcourt play, pointed to the Tar Heels’ interior duo-Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar-as a major reason for his confidence.
And he’s not wrong. Wilson brings a rare blend of athleticism and shot-making from the forward spot, while Veesaar is a true modern big: a rim protector on defense and a floor spacer on offense.
Together, they’ve made life difficult for opposing teams all season.
But Hibbert didn’t stop at the frontcourt. He zeroed in on Seth Trimble as a potential X-factor. “If Seth Trimble can continue to hit shots, timely shots whenever he can,” Hibbert said, “and the addition that UNC does not foul, especially down the stretch, their lack of fouling, I think, could really help them.”
That’s where things get interesting. UNC’s discipline on defense has been a quiet strength all year.
The Tar Heels are averaging just 14.7 personal fouls per game-good for the 96th percentile nationally, per CBBanalytics.com. That’s not just a stat to gloss over.
It’s a reflection of a team that defends aggressively without bailing opponents out at the free throw line.
With Wilson and Veesaar anchoring the paint, the Heels have posted a block-to-foul ratio of 0.24, which ranks in the 83rd percentile. Translation: they’re altering shots without racking up whistles. Opponents are averaging just 15.6 free throw attempts per game against UNC, and their free-throw attempt rate (FTA/FGA) of 24.5% is among the best in the country-second in the ACC behind only Duke.
That kind of defensive efficiency matters in March. Games slow down, possessions tighten, and every free throw can swing momentum. If UNC can continue to defend at a high level without sending teams to the line, they’ll be a tough out in the tournament.
Of course, not everyone is sold. The analytics community remains lukewarm.
ESPN’s predictive model actually favored Miami heading into Tuesday’s game, and KenPom currently has UNC sitting at 29th in net rating after the loss. That’s not exactly Final Four territory-at least not on paper.
Some of that skepticism comes from the Heels’ youth. They’re starting two freshmen and asking a lot from Veesaar as a defensive anchor. There’s no denying the talent, but consistency is still a work in progress.
Still, Hibbert’s take isn’t without merit. This UNC team has the pieces: a skilled frontcourt, a disciplined defense, and a guard in Trimble who’s starting to hit big shots. If they can put it all together down the stretch, there’s a path to a deep run in March.
The loss at Miami stings, no doubt. But with a roster built for tournament basketball and a few more weeks to fine-tune, don’t count the Tar Heels out just yet.