Bill Belichick’s second season at North Carolina is already drawing a harsh forecast, and the outlook isn’t much kinder than last year’s results. Analysts are projecting the Tar Heels to land at 6-6, a record that would get them to a bowl game but only just.
That prediction comes with a lot of baggage. UNC is coming off a 4-8 season, and Belichick made a notable change this offseason by moving on from Freddie Kitchens and hiring Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. The hope is that Petrino’s presence helps clean up an offense that needs more efficiency, while Belichick keeps pushing the discipline, toughness and consistency he has been demanding since arriving in Chapel Hill.
Recruiting has also shown some movement. Per 247 Sports, North Carolina ranked 22nd in the 2026 class overall, landing 61 commits and 12 four-star athletes. That marks a seven-sport improvement from where the Tar Heels stood in 2025.
Even with that momentum, the schedule looks unforgiving. Brad Crawford of CBS Sports has UNC opening 1-4 before rallying late to reach bowl eligibility. In his projection, the Tar Heels beat East Tennessee, Duke, Syracuse, UConn, Virginia and NC State, while falling to TCU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pitt, Miami and Louisville.
Crawford sees a 6-6 finish as a step forward, not the final destination.
"After last season's failure to launch in Bill Belichick's first campaign, simply getting the Tar Heels back to bowl eligibility would represent tangible progress in this staff's second year," Crawford wrote. "North Carolina's hire of Bobby Petrino to reconfigure the offense and improve execution will help a program that is still trying to establish the discipline, toughness, and consistency Belichick has demanded since arriving in Chapel Hill.
"Rebuilding a culture takes time, particularly in today's transfer portal era. If North Carolina is more competitive in big games, avoids the self-inflicted mistakes that plagued last season, and finishes strong, a six-win season becomes a foundation instead of a failure."
But for a program paying Belichick $10 million a year, 6-6 would still land as a disappointment. It would leave him 10-14 over two seasons at UNC, a mark that falls well short of what was expected when Mack Brown was fired.
If the Tar Heels are going to make this season feel like progress, the biggest statement may come in the games that still look toughest on the schedule. Beating one of Pitt, Duke, Notre Dame, Clemson or Miami would go a long way toward changing the tone.
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