Week 0 opens in Dublin on Saturday with North Carolina and TCU meeting at 12 p.m. EST, and the Tar Heels are walking into the 2026 season as 7.5-point underdogs in a neutral-site matchup that already tilts toward the Horned Frogs.
TCU finished 2025 on a roll, winning its final three games to end up 9-4 and cap the year with an Alamo Bowl victory over USC. The challenge now is replacing Josh Hoover, who transferred to Indiana, but the Horned Frogs do have a new arm ready to run the offense in former Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig.
Craig brings a strong résumé with him. Over three seasons at Harvard, he threw for more than 6,000 yards with 52 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and in 2025 he accounted for 28 touchdowns overall, including 25 through the air and three on the ground.
He also ranked third in the FCS in big-time throw rate last season at 8.6 percent, which gives TCU a quarterback who can create explosive plays. That fits a Horned Frogs offense that was inside the top 40 nationally in EPA/Play last season.
North Carolina is also turning to a new quarterback after Billy Edwards Jr. won a four-man competition this summer. Edwards has been in 28 college games, with just two of those coming at Wisconsin in 2025. He has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 3,435 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and 2024 was the only season in which he held a starting job.
That uncertainty matters for a Tar Heels team that went 4-8 in 2025 and struggled badly on offense. UNC posted a net EPA/Play of minus-0.03 last season and ranked 99th nationally in EPA/Play on offense. Bill Belichick is heading into Year 2 in Chapel Hill, but the source material makes clear there are still major questions about whether he has shown he can recruit and coach at a high level in college.
TCU, meanwhile, brings back key offensive pieces in Jeremy Payne and Jordan Dwyer, and oddsmakers seem to trust the Horned Frogs’ setup more than North Carolina’s. The line reflects that confidence, and so does the matchup history from 2025, when TCU beat UNC by 34.
Unless Edwards has transformed himself into a completely different quarterback, this feels like a tough spot for North Carolina to flip the script right away. TCU may not enter 2026 ranked, but the Horned Frogs look capable of winning by a touchdown or more.
In Other News...
UNC Quarterback Battle Is Raising Awkward Questions About Michael Lombardi
Bill Belichick used his coach show to address the quarterback competition, and the picture he painted was already telling. Miles ONeill and Billy Edwards were named as the primary contenders to open the season, while Travis Burgess was singled out for his progress, a sign that the depth chart is starting to take shape as UNC sorts out the most important position on the field.
What stood out just as much was who was not part of the conversation. AuTori Newkirk, a quarterback recruited by GM Michael Lombardi, was not mentioned and has slipped to fourth string behind the newer additions, a development that only adds to the scrutiny around Lombardis evaluation of the position. With Gio Lopez and Ryan Browne also part of the broader quarterback picture, the issue has become less about sheer numbers and more about whether UNCs decision-making at the spot has helped or hurt the program. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Heads Into Opener With A Staff Uncertainty It Can't Ignore
North Carolina enters the final stretch before its opener with an unusual bit of uncertainty hanging over the staff. Defensive coordinator Steve Belichick has been on medical leave since early training camp and has now been away from the team for nearly a month, leaving the Tar Heels to keep moving forward without one of the key voices on that side of the ball.
Bill Belichick said there has been no change in Steve Belichicks status, which makes his availability for the TCU game unclear at best. The timing is less than ideal for a team already dealing with another off-field complication, with general manager Michael Lombardi also on paid administrative leave as North Carolina tries to settle in before the season begins. [Read more 🡒]
UNC Defense Has One Chance To Answer Last Year's TCU Humbling
Last seasons Week 1 loss to TCU still hangs over North Carolinas defense, and the rematch in Ireland gives the Tar Heels a chance to answer for it. One of the more intriguing names in that equation is safety Peyton Waters, who played only limited snaps a year ago but now looks positioned for a much bigger role as the No. 2 strong safety behind Greg Smith.
For UNC, this is more than just an early-season test on a big stage. The Tar Heels have reportedly carried the memory of that defeat through their preparation, and the defense in particular has plenty to prove after the way TCU exposed them last time around. Waters expanded role adds another layer of interest, because Carolina will need more reliable play from the back end if it wants this rematch to look different. [Read more 🡒]