Miami’s return to the top of the AP Top 25 has come with no shortage of conviction, and now the Hurricanes take that No. 1 ranking on the road to Chapel Hill for a Halloween night matchup with Bill Belichick and North Carolina.
So far, Miami has looked the part. The Hurricanes are 7-0 and have stacked up a 14-1 record over their last 15 games, stretching back to early November 2025. That run has put Mario Cristobal’s team in position to keep proving that last season’s trip to the national championship game was no fluke.
This year’s Miami team also brings a different kind of star power than the Hurricanes squads that lost to North Carolina in 2022 and 2023. Those teams finished a combined 12-13 overall, and they didn’t have the kind of firepower Miami has now with quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney, both Heisman Trophy contenders.
They also didn’t own the nation’s best scoring margin. Miami is beating opponents by 33.7 points per game.
North Carolina, though, has had Miami’s number lately. The Tar Heels have won the last five meetings in the series, including those two victories over Cristobal. But the current version of the Hurricanes is operating at a much higher level than those previous Miami teams ever did.
The setup in Chapel Hill adds some pressure to the home side after North Carolina stumbled last week. The Tar Heels had Syracuse in trouble, leading by 10 in the fourth quarter, before Steve Angeli and the Orange offense rallied with a pair of late scores and finished the job in overtime.
That loss cooled some of the buzz around this matchup and raised the urgency for Belichick’s team, especially with Miami coming in ready to punish mistakes. North Carolina has shown it can win tight games, with victories over TCU, Pitt and Duke, but that formula demands a much cleaner performance than it got against Syracuse.
Mensah and Toney, meanwhile, are set up for another national stage. Miami is a 14-point favorite, and this game gives both players a chance to keep building Heisman cases in front of a big audience.
Mensah has been electric, leading the nation in completion percentage at 81.4% while throwing 22 touchdowns, second in FBS, and averaging 307.3 passing yards per game, fourth in FBS. Toney leads the FBS with 66 catches and has become the first wide receiver with at least 900 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns on a 7-0 team since DeVonta Smith in 2020.
There’s another reason Miami keeps separating itself: the middle of games. The Hurricanes have been at their best in the second quarter and early third quarter, where they own the No. 1 point differential in the nation in the second quarter at plus-95 and No. 3 in the third at plus-57. They’re also third nationally in “middle 8” scoring, putting up a plus-7.6-point average in the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third.
As for the matchup itself, Miami’s history in Chapel Hill is part of the backdrop, but the bigger picture points to a game that could stay tighter than the ranking gap suggests. North Carolina’s defense has enough in it to make this competitive, and with Notre Dame looming, Miami may not feel any need to keep pressing late. The projection here is North Carolina hanging around the number while the total stays below the line.
Saturday, Oct. 31 | 7:30 p.m. ET
Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C.
TV: ABC
Live stream: Fubo
Pick: Under 52.5
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