The New York Yankees and Cody Bellinger might not just be a good fit - they might be the only fit that truly makes sense for both sides right now.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman has made it crystal clear: Bellinger is their top free-agent priority. And when the Yankees go public with that kind of intent, history tells us they usually follow through. Failing to land Bellinger would leave a significant void in the middle of the lineup - one that wouldn’t be easy to fill this late in the offseason.
From Bellinger’s perspective, the Yankees might be his best shot at the type of long-term deal he’s looking for. The team has a five-year offer on the table, while agent Scott Boras is still aiming for seven.
If anyone had met that number already, we’d likely be talking about Bellinger in past tense. But here we are - both sides waiting, both sides knowing the clock is ticking.
Across the league, the market doesn’t offer many clear alternatives. The Dodgers and Mets are reportedly eyeing shorter-term deals for Kyle Tucker - arguably the top bat still available - while the Cubs, who non-tendered Bellinger a year ago, just spent heavily on Alex Bregman.
The Phillies could use another outfield bat but appear focused on Bo Bichette. The Giants have a glaring need in the outfield, but Oracle Park is a brutal place for lefty pull hitters like Bellinger.
Statcast ranks it as the second-toughest park for left-handed power, trailing only Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. The Red Sox have a crowded outfield, and the Blue Jays - while a potential fit - seem more locked in on Tucker.
That last part matters. Tucker’s free agency is tightly linked to Bellinger’s.
If Tucker signs first, the Yankees lose leverage. Right now, they can at least posture that they could pivot.
But if Tucker comes off the board, Boras knows the Yankees’ options shrink - and Bellinger’s price could go up.
Of course, that doesn’t mean teams aren’t doing their homework. Bellinger’s home/road splits in 2025 were stark.
He was a top-20 hitter in MLB when playing in the Bronx, but his OPS dropped by nearly 200 points on the road. That’s not a small detail.
Front offices will take note of how much Yankee Stadium’s short porch helped boost his numbers.
Then there’s the projection game. Bellinger was worth 4.9 fWAR last season, but forecasting that kind of production over the next several years is tricky.
FanGraphs’ Depth Charts puts him closer to 3 fWAR in 2026. OOPSY, on the more conservative end, has him at 2.1.
For context, 3 fWAR would’ve tied him with Trent Grisham last season - solid, but not elite. A 2.1 fWAR season?
That’s what Miami rookie Jakob Marsee put up in just 61 games. Or Brandon Marsh, who was a platoon bat in Philly.
Still, the Yankees know Bellinger works in their environment. That’s not a small thing.
New York isn’t for everyone - plenty of talented players have struggled under the weight of the pinstripes. But Bellinger has already shown he can handle the market, the media, and the moment.
That’s a major selling point for the Yankees. And from Boras’ side, it’s a strong negotiating chip.
They also know the lineup just looked better with Bellinger in it - especially when he was hitting near Aaron Judge. That duo gave the Yankees the kind of lefty-righty balance they’ve lacked in recent years. Losing that would be a step backward.
Now, there’s a valid argument to be made for Kyle Tucker as the more consistent offensive player. He’s posted at least 4.2 fWAR in five straight seasons - Bellinger’s only hit that mark three times in his nine-year career.
But Bellinger brings more defensive versatility. He can handle center field and first base, giving the Yankees some flexibility if injuries strike or if they want to rotate players through the DH spot.
Tucker, by contrast, is a corner outfielder only.
That said, the Yankees haven’t always prioritized defense. Last offseason, they were all-in on Juan Soto - a generational bat, yes, but a significantly worse defender than either Bellinger or Tucker.
They were even willing to put Judge or Soto in left field to make it work. So if they were willing to compromise on defense for Soto, it’s hard to argue they should hold that line with Bellinger now.
Bottom line: the most logical outcome is a reunion. The Yankees get their guy - a proven bat who fits the stadium and the city - and Bellinger gets the long-term deal he’s been chasing.
Both sides know what they’re getting. Both sides know the alternatives aren’t great.
That’s why, despite the back-and-forth and the waiting game, it still feels like a matter of when, not if, a deal gets done.