Cody Bellinger’s return would help the Yankees, but it won’t fix what’s broken.
That’s the uncomfortable truth sitting under his absence. Bellinger had been heating up before landing on the injured list, and the timing could not have been worse for a Yankees team already scrambling for answers.
His run really took off on July 4th, when New York was knocked off course early after a meltdown from prospect Brendan Beck. The Yankees almost clawed back, but after another frustrating loss, Bellinger’s work barely registered.
His double that day was his first extra-base hit in eight games.
From July 4th until the injury, Bellinger put together 19 hits in 69 plate appearances. He didn’t leave the yard, but he kept reaching base and spraying doubles around. During that stretch, he posted a .348 OBP and hit .297.
If that version of Bellinger comes back from the IL, the Yankees will take it. He’d be an upgrade over Heliot Ramos in more than one way. Ramos hasn’t hit, and his defense has been a problem too.
On Sunday, Ramos nearly fell over while trying to handle what should have been a routine fly ball. Bellinger, by contrast, brings steadier work in the field. His 6 Outs Above Average sit in the 93rd percentile in baseball, and his 8 Fielding Run Value is in the 91st percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
But the bigger issue in New York isn’t just who plays left or right or wherever the Yankees slot Bellinger. It’s what the rest of the lineup does around him.
He can give Ben Rice some much-needed support, and Rice has not been able to carry the offense with such a thin cast behind him. Even so, Bellinger is more of a helpful piece than a terrifying one.
He’s an upgrade over Ramos, a struggling Jazz Chisholm Jr. or rookie Spencer Jones, whose production has come in bursts, but he’s not the kind of bat that gives Aaron Judge-style protection to Rice.
Opponents can still work around Rice and challenge Bellinger instead. Bellinger hasn’t exactly been a lineup-wrecking force, either. His .420 slugging percentage is down .60 points from last season.
Right now, the Yankees’ list of dependable bats is short. George Lombard Jr. and Trent Grisham have been the only two viable hitters of late, but Grisham has been streaky and Lombard is still a rookie. A wall at some point wouldn’t be a shock.
That’s why the problem goes beyond Bellinger. The real issue is that there isn’t a true threat in the lineup outside of Rice, and the young first baseman has struggled since Judge went down. Bellinger is not the villain here, but his return alone may not move the needle much unless the rest of the group starts producing.
And that leads to the biggest concern of all: nobody knows when Judge is coming back. There have been a few updates, including reports from a few days ago that he played catch, but he still hasn’t really swung a bat. For the Yankees, that’s a worrying sign, because they need him badly.
Bellinger made the All-Star team, but he still hasn’t delivered the kind of impact New York has needed. He’s having a down year compared with last season, and missing four weeks only makes the wait harder. If he does rejoin the lineup, skepticism about how much it actually changes will be fair as long as the bats around him stay quiet.
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