The Yankees are still in position to punch their ticket to the postseason, but the math around it has gotten a little strange. With so much of the focus already trained on Tampa Bay and Boston, the actual clinch number has taken a back seat.
Entering the finale against the Colorado Rockies, New York’s magic number to lock up a playoff spot sits at 6. In other words, six Yankees wins combined with losses by the No. 7 seed will finish the job.
Right now that team is the Toronto Blue Jays, though that could shift to the Cleveland Guardians or even the Baltimore Orioles before long. The broader AL picture has been changing so often that the path to a clinch feels like it’s moving underfoot.
That’s part of why the more immediate concern is not just getting in, but where the Yankees land once they do. The Rays and Red Sox are still the clubs that matter most in the standings chase, especially with New York trying to keep the upper hand in the division race and, if that slips away, secure home-field advantage for the Wild Card round.
The Yankees’ upcoming four-game series against Tampa Bay, which opens with a Sept. 22 doubleheader, still matters plenty. Atlanta has not helped New York at all this week, getting hammered by the Rays twice at home and wiping out both Yankees wins over Colorado. Entering Thursday night, the Yankees sit three back in the loss column, although one Braves win trimmed what could have been an even tougher gap.
The Rays own the season-series edge, 6-3, and that means New York would need to sweep the four-game set just to take the tiebreaker. Short of that, the Yankees would need to chip away at the gap, win three of four, and hope the Rays stumble at Philadelphia to end the season while New York handles its own business against the Orioles.
It’s a familiar kind of scoreboard-watching, the same sort of scenario the Yankees faced last year while rooting for Toronto to beat Tampa Bay. That didn’t produce a single Blue Jays loss then.
The Yankees can only hope the script is different this time.
Boston is still hanging around, too. The Red Sox dropped twice to the Angels this week, leaving them four games behind the Yankees in the standings and five back in the loss column. New York can protect its edge by taking care of business during Boston’s off days, because those half-game margins can turn into real pressure fast if the Yankees slip.
The tiebreaker between the two clubs is already in New York’s pocket, earned in their final regular-season meeting. Even so, the Yankees would rather not have to rely on it.
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