The Yankees are heading into the 2026 season with a rotation that could either anchor a serious playoff push or leave the team scrambling for answers by midsummer. There’s no denying the potential here-this is a group that ranked eighth in the league last year in combined fWAR, thanks in large part to standout seasons from Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. But the questions are just as prominent as the upside, especially when it comes to health, depth, and the next steps for their young arms.
Let’s start at the top. Max Fried was everything the Yankees could’ve hoped for in 2025.
He logged a career-high 195 1/3 innings, leaned on his elite command and groundball tendencies, and finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting. That’s ace-level production, plain and simple.
Carlos Rodón matched Fried’s workload and delivered his best season in pinstripes, posting a 3.09 ERA with a strong 25.7% strikeout rate. He also made a big improvement in limiting the long ball-a key adjustment after a rocky 2024.
The Yankees also got encouraging signs from their younger arms. Rookie Will Warren made 33 starts and showed flashes of being a long-term rotation piece. Cam Schlittler came up in the second half and made an immediate impact, both in the regular season and in a memorable Wild Card Game 3 outing against the Red Sox.
But as promising as that all sounds, this rotation isn’t without its red flags. The biggest variable? Health.
Gerrit Cole is expected back in 2026 after missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Before that, he was limited in 2024 by elbow inflammation.
Now 35, Cole hasn’t pitched a full season since winning the AL Cy Young in 2023. Manager Aaron Boone recently said Cole’s rehab has gone smoothly, with “no hiccups,” but the real test will come when he’s back on a mound facing big-league hitters.
Can he still be the same dominant force? And even if he can, how many innings can the Yankees realistically expect from him in 2026?
Rodón, meanwhile, had a cleanup procedure on his elbow in October. He’s targeting a return in late April or early May, and at 33, he’s slightly less of a durability concern than Cole.
The encouraging thing with Rodón is that his 2025 success wasn’t smoke and mirrors-his Statcast profile was elite across the board, with his fastball, breaking ball, and offspeed offerings all grading in the 91st percentile or better. Still, his 2024 season-3.95 ERA, 1.59 HR/9-reminds us that consistency has been elusive at times.
That brings us back to Warren and Schlittler. Warren’s fastball was a weapon last year, ranking in the 95th percentile in run value.
But his secondary pitches weren’t nearly as effective. His slider, curveball, and changeup all graded well below average, which limits his ceiling unless he can refine those offerings.
The strikeout rate (24.1%) is solid, but he’ll need to generate softer contact and mix his pitches better to become a true mid-rotation anchor.
Schlittler, on the other hand, turned heads with a 2.96 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate over 73 innings. He was electric in short bursts, and his fastball is already a major-league asset.
But like Warren, his secondary pitches-especially his curveball and slider-need work. He used them sparingly last year, and Statcast wasn’t impressed when he did.
Add in a 10.2% walk rate, and there’s a clear need for better command and pitch development if he’s going to sustain that early success.
Beyond the core group, the Yankees have some wild cards. Luis Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year, only managed 57 innings last year due to a right lat strain.
His surface numbers looked fine (3.32 ERA), but his xERA (4.94) and FIP (4.63) told a different story. The control issues that have followed him throughout his career resurfaced, and his strikeout rate dropped by 10%.
He’s still talented, but he’s got work to do to regain his form.
Then there’s Ryan Weathers, who brings 86th-percentile fastball velocity but hasn’t been able to stay on the field. He’s thrown just 281 big-league innings since debuting in 2021 and was limited to eight starts last year due to flexor and lat injuries. The Yankees gave up four prospects to get him, so they’re clearly betting on the upside-but it’s a gamble.
Depth-wise, the options get thinner. Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn are serviceable, but they’re not the kind of arms you want logging 100+ innings if injuries pile up. And Clarke Schmidt, who underwent UCL surgery in July, might not be back until the second half of the season-if at all.
So where does that leave the Yankees? In a familiar place: high expectations, high stakes, and a rotation that could go in multiple directions.
If Cole and Rodón stay healthy and the young arms take a step forward, this group could be one of the best in the American League. But if injuries strike and the depth gets tested early, things could unravel fast.
It’s a balancing act-and in the AL East, where the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox have all made moves to get better, there’s not much room for error. The Yankees are betting on their arms. Now we wait to see if the gamble pays off.