The Yankees keep getting the kind of starts most teams would build a week around. Lately, though, those outings have been landing in losses, which is the part that has to sting in the Bronx.
Sunday was the latest example. Cam Schlittler spun seven strong innings against Atlanta, allowing one run, and still watched the Yankees lose 2-1 in 10 innings at Yankee Stadium. With Aaron Judge missing again, New York’s lineup gave the pitching staff almost no cushion.
And yet the three-game set with the Braves still said plenty about what the Yankees have on the mound right now. Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Schlittler combined to throw 20 1/3 innings, give up three runs on 12 hits and two walks, and rack up 27 strikeouts.
Atlanta came in as one of MLB’s highest-scoring teams. The Yankees’ top three made them look ordinary.
That’s become a big deal because New York is hanging onto the postseason chase while the offense works through one of its roughest stretches of the season. Tampa Bay’s win Monday, with the Yankees idle, pushed New York six games behind in the AL East entering Tuesday. When runs are scarce, every wasted gem on the mound carries extra weight.
Aaron Boone has kept coming back to the rotation as the reason this team still has a path. Yankees starters entered Monday with an MLB-best 13.4 fWAR and had put up a 2.91 ERA since July 6. They had also held opponents to one run or fewer in nine of their previous 12 starts.
“It’s tough, but that’s the reality of where we are right now,” Boone said. “But also, it’s a big reason why I have the highest of hopes for our club still.”
The numbers around the current rotation start to feel even louder when you zoom out. With the Yankees off Monday, Schlittler carried a 2.21 ERA into Tuesday, Fried sat at 2.88 and Cole at 3.35. Each is on track to finish with at least 100 innings and an ERA of 3.65 or better, a combination the Yankees have almost never had in the last 30 years.
The most famous version came in 1998. Orlando Hernandez finished with a 3.13 ERA over 141 innings, David Wells posted a 3.49 ERA in 214 1/3 innings, and David Cone logged a 3.55 ERA over 207 2/3. That team went 114-48 and swept San Diego in the World Series.
There is one wrinkle in that comparison. The Yankees actually matched that three-starter standard again in 2022. Baseball-Reference’s season records show Cole at a 3.50 ERA in 200 2/3 innings, Nestor Cortes at 2.44 in 158 1/3, and Luis Severino at 3.18 in 102.
So if this season ends with Schlittler, Fried and Cole all clearing those thresholds, it would be the third such Yankees rotation since 1998, not the first. But 1998 still stands as the benchmark that matters most, because that was the version that ended with a title.
The Yankees have had other strong October staffs in between - the Clemens-Pettitte-Hernandez groups in 1999 and 2000, the Mussina-era rotations from 2001 through 2003, and the Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte group in 2009. None of them had three 100-inning starters all finish under that 3.65 ERA line.
What makes this trio interesting is that each arm got here a different way.
Cole missed the first two months while finishing his comeback from Tommy John surgery. June was rough, but his fastball command came back after that.
Since July 1, his four-seamer has produced plus-10 Run Value, the best mark in MLB over that stretch. Through 14 starts, he owns a 3.35 ERA and 3.37 FIP.
Fried missed more than two months with a left elbow bone bruise before returning to give the Yankees another frontline lefty. His 2.88 ERA and 2.40 FIP have been built on weak contact and a deep mix. Left-handed hitters have only a .157 average and .184 wOBA against him.
Schlittler has been the most electric of the bunch. He entered Tuesday with a 2.21 ERA and a 26.1% strikeout-minus-walk rate, which has him in the AL Cy Young conversation. His harder curveball has also become a bigger part of his recent plan.
Braves manager Walt Weiss didn’t need much time to notice.
“We came in here and faced three No. 1s, really, three aces,” Weiss said.
That’s the Yankees’ hope now: that three ace-level starters can carry them deep enough to make the October path real. But there’s a catch, and the recent history is clear about it.
The 1998 Yankees turned dominant pitching into a championship. The 2022 club hit the same three-starter benchmark and still got swept by Houston in the AL Championship Series.
That’s the line New York is walking right now. Fried, Cole and Schlittler can control a playoff series. Ryan Weathers and Will Warren have helped cover innings behind them, and Carlos Rodon is on a minor league rehab assignment as he works back from left elbow inflammation, which could give the staff another boost.
Austin Wells said the pressure on the pitchers has been obvious.
“At the moment, those guys got to be almost perfect for us to be in the ballgame,” Wells said, “and they have been, which has been incredible.”
That’s the whole story in one sentence. The Yankees have a rotation that can drag them into October conversations. Whether that means anything depends on whether the lineup can finally meet it halfway.
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