Dax Kilby’s Arizona Fall League run is starting to look like the kind of stretch that changes the conversation around a prospect.
The Yankees’ first-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft has done nothing but validate the hype since New York turned in the card, and now he’s making up for lost time after a hamstring injury wiped out most of his 2026 season. Through 13 games in the AFL, the 19-year-old is hitting .288/.350/.558 with two home runs. He’s still a couple of weeks shy of his 20th birthday.
The production has been loud enough to draw attention beyond the Yankees’ camp. FanGraphs prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen placed Kilby in the “Ascending, Star Caliber Prospects” tier alongside Texas Rangers standout Sebastian Walcott, and he didn’t hold back on the praise.
"Kilby is the best pure hitter in the Fall League. His hands just seem to be in the right place a lot of the time, and he can adjust the posture of his upper body to help get the barrel where it needs to go. He peppers both gaps with a lot of hard contact and he still has room for more mass," Longenhagen wrote, before projecting Kilby as a top 20 prospect in FanGraphs upcoming rankings.
That would be a major jump from his current No. 103 spot on FanGraphs, especially considering he’s played only 54 minor league games since turning pro.
The numbers in the desert fit with what Kilby showed last year in Tampa, where he hit .353/.457/.441. But the more interesting part is what he’s doing now: working through a significant swing overhaul and still producing. Kilby described the changes to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis at the beginning of October.
"We're actually going through a pretty big swing change," Kilby told MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis at the beginning of October. "I'm starting narrow and open, whereas I was pretty wide and closed.
It's pretty much a complete change in my swing, but I'm super excited to use it. I've been using it for a couple of weeks now and it's felt amazing, so I'm excited to see how it plays in games."
He added that the work has been about getting more into his lower half and becoming more adjustable.
"They obviously have all the numbers and science stuff behind it, but it all came down to getting more into my back hip and kind of just getting more in my legs throughout my swing," Kilby added. "That is the key that the Yankees guys have told me to being more adjustable and just having more success at higher levels."
Longenhagen also pointed out that Kilby’s long-term defensive home is still unsettled. That remains part of the evaluation, but the bat is doing the heavy lifting here. If this keeps up, the Yankees will have a hitter with power, patience and real contact ability moving up the ladder fast.
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