NEW YORK - Aaron Boone walked into the postseason with the kind of decision that barely invites a fight: Cam Schlittler in Game 1 against Boston.
That choice was the easy one, and maybe the smartest one too. Schlittler has been a nightmare for the Red Sox over the last two seasons, posting a 0.74 ERA with 27 strikeouts in four appearances. If Boone’s goal was to make the most defensible move possible after a rough stretch that included the Aaron Judge Calf Controversy, he found it.
The Yankees’ manager also gets a little breathing room from the usual noise. Picking the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young Award is the kind of call that doesn’t leave much room for the critics to pounce. Even the Fire Boone crowd would have a hard time arguing with it.
And Boston, at least on paper, doesn’t look like the opponent that can punish the Yankees for it. Scouts I’ve talked to believe New York will do more than win the Wild Card Series - they think the Yankees could sweep it in two games because of the club’s clear edge in starting pitching.
But that’s where the real decision-making starts.
If the Yankees get past Boston, the Division Series is where Boone’s pitching plan becomes a much trickier puzzle. The Rays are a different animal.
Their rotation is almost as strong as New York’s, with a 3.51 ERA compared to the Yankees’ 3.30, and they’re built to thrive at Tropicana Field. That ballpark brings its own problems: the low-hanging catwalks, the pale roof that makes pop-ups tough to track, and the strange acoustics of a dome that feels more like an indoor warehouse than a normal stadium.
That’s especially important because the Yankees could end up needing a Game 5 at the Trop, where the Rays have MLB’s best home record.
So while Boone’s Game 1 call was safe, the bigger challenge is still ahead. Against Boston, he can afford to be conventional. Against Tampa Bay, he may need to get creative.
Here’s the rotation plan I would use.
For the Wild Card Series: Max Fried in Game 1, Gerrit Cole in Game 2, Schlittler in Game 3.
If the Yankees do what many around the league expect and wrap up the series quickly, Schlittler wouldn’t even have to pitch in Game 3. That would set up the Division Series with Schlittler in Game 1, Carlos Rodon in Game 2, Fried in Game 3, Cole in Game 4, and Schlittler back again in Game 5.
It’s a gamble, no question. Keeping Schlittler out of the Wild Card Series until a possible Game 3 raises the risk that the Yankees could be swept before he ever gets on the mound. Boone almost certainly won’t go that way.
But if the Yankees do sweep, the payoff is obvious: a rotation lined up exactly how they’d want it for the next round.
And this isn’t some blind leap. Fried has been excellent against Boston, going 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA against them in his career, with 53 strikeouts in seven appearances. Cole is the obvious bet to close out Game 2 if needed, and Schlittler would be the guy I’d trust in Game 3 if the series went that far.
The sweep scenario is where the idea gets really attractive. New York would enter the Rays series with Schlittler and Rodon both appearing in three of the five games, and each starter would be fresh.
Schlittler in Game 1 would be working on nine days’ rest, basically the equivalent of skipping a start. Rodon in Game 2 would have 11 days off, a useful breather for a pitcher who has already been on the injured list twice this season.
Fried in Game 3 would be on five days’ rest after starting Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. Cole in Game 4 would also be on five days’ rest after Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.
Schlittler in Game 5 would be on six days’ rest after starting Game 1 of the Division Series.
That’s the appeal Boone doesn’t have if he simply uses Schlittler right away against Boston. In that setup, Schlittler gets pushed back to Game 2 of the Division Series and could wind up on three days’ rest if the season comes down to a Game 5 at the Trop.
And that’s the point: the Yankees’ season may well be decided by what happens against the Rays, not the Red Sox. Boone has already managed around a brutal run of injuries - Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Fried, Cole and Rodon all spent time sidelined - and the Yankees still finished with the American League’s second-best record.
But Boone doesn’t get much credit for surviving the regular season. The complaints don’t stop, and a sweep of Boston wouldn’t quiet them for long. He’d still need to beat Tampa Bay, push through to the World Series and bring home the franchise’s first championship in 17 years.
There’s no denying the logic behind Boone’s current plan. Winning Game 1 of a postseason series carries real value, and the historical odds of advancing after that first win in a Wild Card Series sit around 70-75 percent.
Still, the Rays are the real test, and that’s why a more aggressive rotation setup makes sense to me. If the Yankees are going to get where they want to go, they need the best possible alignment for the round that matters most.
Boone’s move was the safe one.
My idea is the bolder one.
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