Yankees May Have Won The Catcher Gamble Without Making The Splash

As the Red Sox take a gamble on Adley Rutschman, the Yankees quietly stand to gain from their rivals' potential missteps.

The Yankees didn’t land the catcher upgrade they wanted, but the ripple effects of that decision could end up helping them anyway.

New York settled for signing Mitch Garver after Brian Cashman couldn’t find a price he liked on the catching market. That left the Yankees watching from the sidelines while the biggest name available, Adley Rutschman, went from the Orioles to the Red Sox in a massive deal.

Boston paid a steep price to get him, sending three of its top-five prospects - Anthony Eyanson, Kyson Witherspoon, and Enddy Azocar - to Baltimore. That kind of return usually comes with a true franchise centerpiece. Rutschman certainly looked like one early in his career, when the first overall pick in the 2019 draft posted back-to-back 5.5 WAR seasons in 2022 and 2023.

But the bat has backed up. His wRC+ slid from 134 in 2022 to 126 in 2023 to 103 in 2024.

That’s still useful production for a catcher with his defensive value, but the decline was hard to ignore. The drop-off got worse in the second half of 2024, when he put up a .585 OPS across his final 234 plate appearances, then carried that into a disappointing 2025 season with a .673 OPS.

He opened 2026 hot, but since May 1 he has a .671 OPS over 220 plate appearances.

Injuries have been part of the story, too, and Rutschman is now working back from a wrist injury. The concern is obvious: if the physical issues keep piling up, the offensive slide may not stop.

That matters even more because Boston gave up a big chunk of its prospect capital to get him. The Red Sox have spent years stockpiling talent, but the returns haven’t all been there.

Kristian Campbell has a .728 OPS in Triple-A. Marcelo Mayer was shipped to the Giants after failing to do anything at the big league level.

Roman Anthony had a strong season last year, but he struggled before missing most of 2026 with an injury.

Now Boston is reportedly considering an extension for Rutschman, with Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow emphasizing the value of the extra year of team control. But if the club commits to him long term, it could wind up tied to a player whose production is trending the wrong way while the farm system has already been thinned out.

Baltimore’s side of the deal looks like a different kind of admission. After looking like a rising force in 2024, the Orioles have stumbled over the last two seasons, and the concerns that surfaced last year seem a lot more real now. Trading Rutschman can be read as a reset, a sign that the organization knows the roster isn’t as complete as it once appeared.

Buster Olney of ESPN told The Just Baseball Show that this may only be the beginning, saying Gunnar Henderson could be next. Henderson is a Scott Boras client and is highly unlikely to sign an extension, and without him, the Orioles would lose even more of their edge.

For the Yankees, that’s the potential silver lining. If the Red Sox are stuck with a declining asset and a depleted system, and the Orioles are headed for a deeper teardown, New York could watch two division rivals take a serious step backward. In a division that usually beats itself up all year, that would be no small development.

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