If the Yankees are going to make any real noise in October without Aaron Judge, the formula probably won’t look pretty. They’ve spent long stretches this season looking lost when the lineup was stripped of its three-time MVP, and the road ahead only gets rougher with some of the game’s best pitching staffs waiting.
Still, there’s one reason to think New York might be more dangerous than it appears: the bats have shown a real knack for delivering when the game tightens up.
The Yankees own a 119 wRC+ in high-leverage spots this season, which ranks second in baseball. Even more telling, they’ve done a huge chunk of their damage from the seventh inning on, where their wRC+ has sat near the top of the sport. For a club that has too often felt like it was either cruising early or going quiet when the pressure rose, that’s a meaningful shift.
Ben Rice has been the biggest reason for it. The 27-year-old has turned into a force in the moments that matter most, and his numbers are absurd: .375/.483/.729 in high-leverage situations, with a 224 wRC+ that leads MLB by a huge margin.
Rafael Devers is second in that category at 193, 31 points behind. Junior Caminero has gotten plenty of attention for his clutch reputation, but his 141 wRC+ doesn’t come close to Rice’s level.
Rice isn’t carrying that load alone. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has posted a 172 wRC+ in those spots, George Lombard Jr. sits at 169, and Luis Garcia Jr. is at 166. The sample sizes aren’t all huge, but the pattern is clear: this lineup has been better than expected when the moment gets biggest.
That matters because the Yankees also enter October with a rotation that can shorten games. On paper, that combination - a staff that can keep things close and a lineup that has delivered late - gives them a real path forward even without Judge.
But there’s a catch, and it’s a big one.
The bullpen has been a problem all season, and the late-innings advantage the offense has built can disappear fast if the relief corps keeps coughing up leads or letting games drift out of reach before the bats get their turn. The concerns have been there for months: too little depth, too much strain on the top arms, and too much faith that reinforcements would somehow clean it all up.
Brian Cashman’s trade deadline approach didn’t solve it. Clarke Schmidt was supposed to help, but he’s injured again, and the bullpen has grown thinner while the most trusted arms have worn down.
The September numbers are ugly enough to raise alarms. Yankees relievers finished the month with a 4.77 FIP, and their 1.48 HR/9 in the final month of the season is hardly the kind of number that inspires confidence heading into the postseason.
So yes, the Yankees have a real edge in clutch hitting, and that could matter a lot in October. But if the bullpen can’t hold the line, that advantage may never get the chance to decide anything.
In Other News...
Red Sox Frustration Boils Over After Yankees Expose A Bigger Problem
After a strong regular season run, the frustration around the Red Sox has started to spill into the open, and the Yankees have helped expose why. In Game 2 of the playoff series, Sonny Gray was pulled after 70 pitches even though he felt confident he could keep going, and the decision immediately became part of the postgame conversation around manager Chad Tracy's handling of the moment.
Willson Contreras added to the sense of tension by pushing back on the team's heavy reliance on data and the choices being made around it. When two players are publicly questioning strategy this soon after a disappointing postseason showing, it suggests the issue goes beyond one pitching change and into the broader way the club is being run. [Read more 🡒]
Sonny Grays Wild Card Exit Has Red Sox Fans Debating One Thing
Sonny Grays Wild Card start against the Yankees gave the Red Sox a mixed bag in a game that already carried plenty of October heat. He allowed two runs over 4.2 innings and struck out five, giving Boston enough to stay in the fight while still leaving room for the kind of postgame scrutiny that tends to follow a pitcher in a spotlight game like this.
What really set off the conversation was what viewers kept noticing on Gray between pitches, with repeated touches to his neck drawing immediate attention online. The speculation followed quickly, fueled by the usual modern blend of replay, social media and suspicion, even as no officials have confirmed any wrongdoing and some observers pointed out he has made similar gestures before. [Read more 🡒]
Yankees Just Exposed A Red Sox Problem Their Own Stars Couldnt Ignore
Bostons starters did enough to keep the playoff series against the Yankees within reach, but the way those games unraveled told a familiar October story. Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle both gave the Red Sox quality innings, only to be removed early, and once the bullpen took over, the games slipped away and Boston dropped both contests.
Grays own reaction underscored the tension behind the decision-making. He said he wanted to keep going and believed he was still effective even as the lineup came around for a third look, while Willson Contreras suggested the call to pull Gray may have leaned too heavily on data instead of experience. For a Red Sox team that could not afford any cracks in the pitching plan, the choice to go to the bullpen ended up looking like the biggest one of all. [Read more 🡒]