Ben Rice spent the first two months of the season looking like he might force his way into the American League MVP race. He was driving the ball, piling up home runs and sitting atop the majors in OPS, the kind of start that turns a young slugger into a serious awards conversation.
Then Aaron Judge went on the injured list with a fractured rib, and Rice’s season lost its shine.
The Yankees first baseman has gone 2-for-28 over his last eight games, and he was held hitless during New York’s rough weekend in Boston, where the Red Sox finished off a four-game sweep for the first time since 2018. June has been a struggle across the board, but Rice’s numbers have taken the hit: he’s batting .202 this month without Judge in the lineup, with five home runs and a .658 OPS.
That downturn has come with team consequences, too. The Yankees dropped first place in the American League East to the Rays, and Rice’s MVP case has faded with it.
His odds now sit fourth at +1600 on FanDuel Sportsbook, behind the Astros’ Yordan Álvarez (-150), the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz (+260) and the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. (+650).
Judge’s absence has clearly changed the shape of the Yankees’ lineup, and hitting coach James Rowson said the slump isn’t about players tightening up.
“I don’t see guys pressing, including Ben,’’ Yankees hitting coach James Rowson said, according to the New York Post's Dan Martin. “When you miss that caliber of hitter Judge is, it’s an adjustment period for everyone. Guys have done a good job stepping up without Judge, and you’re gonna have stretches like this.”
Even with the dip, Rice still has power on the board. He’s tied for fifth in the majors with 22 home runs, though he has slipped to eighth in OPS at .928.
And while Rice has cooled, Paul Goldschmidt has given the Yankees a lift few could have expected. The 38-year-old is hitting .323 in June with eight home runs, 22 RBIs and a .960 OPS.
Before Judge went down, the idea was bigger than one hot streak. Judge and Rice were chasing MVP hardware while also dreaming about becoming the first teammates with 50-home-run seasons since Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris powered the 1961 World Series champions.
ESPN projects Rice to finish with 43 home runs, but the bigger issue is the uncertainty around Judge’s return. For now, Rice is the one being asked to carry the offense.
“Ben is already a threat in this league, with or without Judge,’’ Rowson said, per Martin. “Pitchers' game plan against Ben Rice.
Maybe it’s tougher for him now, but he’s capable and ready for it. We’ve got to bounce back.”
The Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 games and 12-12 without Judge, which has left them in second place in the AL East. Even so, they still hold a comfortable edge in the AL Wild Card race, and FanGraphs gives them a 98.2% chance of making the playoffs.
There’s still time for Rice to turn things back around. But with Judge - and Giancarlo Stanton, too - out of the lineup, the first baseman is finding out how much harder the spotlight gets when the MVP talk starts getting real.
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