The Yankees are headed back into the postseason against the Rays, and this one comes with a setup that feels a little different from the usual October script.
New York and Tampa Bay will meet in the playoffs for the second time in franchise history, and the opener arrives Saturday at The Trop. It’s also, somehow, the first postseason game the Yankees have ever played there.
The series schedule adds one more wrinkle: there’s an off day between Games 1 and 2, even though the clubs stay in the same building. That could let both teams line up their Game 1 starters again on full rest for Game 4.
For the Yankees, that means Gerrit Cole gets the ball in Game 1.
Cole’s numbers make the case easy enough. His career regular season ERA is 3.20, and his career postseason ERA sits at 2.77. He also enters this series with the kind of track record that leaves little room for debate when the lights get bright.
The matchup itself is interesting because the usual analytics point in one direction, while New York is clearly leaning on trust in its ace. The Rays have been much stronger against right-handed pitching this season, with the fourth-best wRC+ and fifth-best OPS in baseball in those situations.
Against lefties, they’ve fallen to 26th and 25th in those same categories. So on paper, starting Cole in Game 1 goes against the numbers.
Still, this is not a team searching for a surprise option. The Yankees are not trying to sneak Deivi Garcia into a soft landing spot. They have a rotation full of top-end, playoff-tested arms, and Cole is the one they’re handing the ball to.
He finished the season strong after two rough outings in San Diego and against the Mets, and he also turned in a solid start against the Rays at the Stadium to close the year. Now the bigger question is how Carlos Rodón fits into the series. Game 3 or Game 4 back in New York are both possibilities, and if Cole handles Game 1 well, he could even come back and face Drew Rasmussen again in the fourth game.
It’s a good problem for the Yankees to have. The data pointed one way, recent history pointed another, and New York chose its horse. In a short series, that decision could define everything.
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