Luis Gil's Fastball Revival: A Key to Yankees' Rotation Hopes
Last season, Yankees fans had high hopes for Luis Gil, but his performance left something to be desired. Despite a shiny ERA, Gil's strikeout rate took a nosedive while his walk rate soared-an unsettling trend for one of the game's hardest-throwing starters.
The root of the issue was a lat injury suffered during Spring Training, sidelining him until after the All-Star Break. This injury forced Gil to jump back into the fray during a heated AL East race, a tough spot for any pitcher.
Fast forward to now, and things are looking up for Gil. After a healthy offseason, the buzz around the Yankees’ camp is optimistic. Early bullpen sessions show Gil sitting comfortably at 94-96 MPH, a promising sign for his comeback season.
Velocity: The Key to Gil’s Rebound
In his first two starts last season, Gil's fastball clocked in at around 96 MPH. But as the season wore on, he lost some of that heat, ending with an average of 94.9 MPH over his final six starts. This dip in velocity coincided with a 5.10 FIP, masking underlying issues that led the Yankees to opt for Cam Schlittler in a crucial Wild Card game.
Without his usual velocity, Gil became more hittable. But with early bullpen sessions showing him back in the 94-96 MPH range, there's hope for a resurgence. A lively fastball not only boosts his strikeout potential but also enhances the effectiveness of his slider and changeup.
Last season, Gil's fastball saw a drop in Whiff% from 28.5% to 18.8%, and an increase in xwOBA from .315 to .360. Hitters were making more contact and doing more damage-factors that contributed to a 10% decrease in his strikeout rate.
Impact on the Yankees’ Rotation
A rejuvenated fastball could be the catalyst for Gil's entire repertoire, potentially transforming the Yankees’ rotation. The team has long aimed for a super rotation, and Gil's return to form could be pivotal. With Max Fried sidelined last season due to Tommy John Surgery, the Yankees missed out on the dynamic 1-2 punch they envisioned with Gerrit Cole.
For Gil, the challenge is to climb back from being a backend starter with command issues to a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm. A healthy Gil could shift the depth chart, pushing pitchers like Will Warren and Ryan Weathers down, and adding much-needed electricity to the rotation.
Fastball velocity and run prevention go hand in hand. If Gil can recapture his 2024 form, the Yankees could be looking at a bounce-back campaign that reshapes their pitching staff and bolsters their postseason ambitions.