The Yankees may have caught a break at just the right time.
With Boston coming to the Bronx for a four-game series this weekend, the Red Sox appear set to burn through some of their better arms first during a tune-up against the Miami Marlins. That matters because it could leave New York facing a softer version of Boston’s rotation when the games actually count in the division race.
Boston is still very much in the mix. The Red Sox have slipped from the pace they were setting earlier, but they’ve stayed alive in the playoff hunt and have trimmed ground on the Yankees. They’re 13-8 in August with a plus-44 run differential, and they’ve already gone 5-4 against New York this season, including that four-game sweep at Fenway from June 25-28 that stung the Yankees badly.
Now the setup looks different.
According to the expected rotation, Patrick Sandoval would go Friday, Jake Bennett would start the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader, Boston could piece together a bullpen game in the second Saturday matchup, and Ranger Suarez would get the ball Sunday. That would keep Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle out of the weekend series, even though both are slated to start against Miami.
That’s a meaningful twist for New York. Tolle has been one of Boston’s biggest surprises, in the middle of a breakout rookie season and carrying a 3.08 ERA over 120 innings. Gray has been every bit as tough as advertised, with a 2.79 ERA and a season that put him alongside Tim Wakefield as the only Red Sox pitchers in the last 50 years to win 16 of their first 24 starts.
The Yankees would much rather see Sandoval, and the numbers back that up. He’s returned from Tommy John surgery and a pair of recovery setbacks, but he hasn’t found his rhythm yet, posting a 4.54 ERA over eight starts. He also struggled in 2024 before going down, finishing that season with a 5.08 ERA.
Bennett has been better, at least overall. He’s logged a 3.46 ERA in his first 14 big league starts. Still, the workload is starting to pile up: he has thrown 120 innings this season between Triple-A and the majors, easily the most he’s ever handled in one year, and his last six starts have brought a 5.29 ERA.
Suarez looks like the toughest name in the group, but even he has some cracks right now. Boston’s big free-agent addition owns a 3.41 ERA this season, though he’s been hit hard lately, with a 5.11 ERA since July 1.
That gives the Yankees a real opening, especially if their bats show up. New York is likely to use Carlos Rodón and Will Warren in the series, unless the schedule gets shuffled because of Ryan Weathers’ injury and the complications of the doubleheader. The other two starters have not been determined yet.
There are signs the offense is ready to do its part. Cody Bellinger is back, and the eight-run outburst in the finale against Toronto offered a reminder of what this lineup can look like when it gets rolling. Against a Red Sox staff missing its top-end firepower, that could be enough to swing the weekend.
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The larger issue is that third base has been a soft spot for the Yankees even before the injury, with the group posting a low batting average and OPS compared with the rest of the lineup. Now the club has to find enough offense and stability there without much margin for error, and the way they handle the position in the short term could say a lot about how seriously they viewed it all along. [Read more 🡒]