The Yankees have gotten what they needed from Gerrit Cole this year. That’s the tricky part.
After nearly a year and a half away while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Cole was never a lock to snap right back into his 2023 Cy Young version in 2026. New York didn’t need that anyway. With Cam Schlittler emerging, Max Fried on the roster, and Carlos Rodón, Will Warren, and Ryan Weathers supplying talent and depth, the Yankees were built to survive on more than just Cole’s right arm.
And on the surface, that’s exactly how it has played out. Cole has given the Yankees something close to what he was before the injury that shut him down in 2024, and the rotation has spent the season near the top of the league in ERA and most other statistical categories. The numbers look familiar enough that it’s easy to assume October should be fine.
But the deeper dive tells a less comfortable story.
Cole’s fastball velocity has held up. After touching triple digits in rehab, he’s sitting at 96.8 miles per hour in games, the same number he posted during his 2023 Cy Young run and nearly a mile per hour better than the 95.9 he averaged in 2024. That part of the comeback has checked out.
The issue is what’s happening when hitters actually put the ball in play. Cole has allowed an average exit velocity of 90.7 miles per hour, a fifth-percentile mark.
His 44% hard-hit rate sits in the 10th percentile, his ground-ball rate is in the eighth percentile, and his 8.7% barrel rate lands in the 27th percentile. In other words, when contact is made, it’s not usually soft contact.
That showed up in his Sept. 6 start against the San Diego Padres, when he was tagged for home runs by the first three hitters he faced. Cole did settle in from there, finishing seven innings and allowing just one more run, but the early damage was enough to hand New York the loss.
Nightmare start for Gerrit Cole as he allows home runs to the first three batters he faces pic.twitter.com/FAKK3AhJPs
- Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) September 6, 2026
The warning signs don’t stop there. Cole’s chase rate is in the 30th percentile, and his whiff rate is in the 28th percentile. He’s still striking hitters out, but he’s leaning on contact more than before, and that can get dangerous in a hurry.
His breaking stuff has also taken a step back. Cole’s slider and curve combined for a minus-2 run value this season, a sharp drop from a combined run value of 9 in 2024 and 16 in 2023. Those pitches make up nearly a third of what he throws, so when they aren’t doing their job, the whole mix starts to wobble.
That’s what makes the playoff outlook so uneasy. There have been stretches this year when Cole looked like he was cruising, only to run into trouble fast. Brian Cashman has often treated long-term injury returns like Cole’s as major additions, but that only matters if the pitcher can hold up against October lineups that hit harder and punish mistakes faster.
Add in the concern that Max Fried’s elbow has brought, and it’s not hard to imagine the Yankees’ rotation looking a lot less secure under postseason pressure than it has all season.
Still, Cole isn’t some untested arm being thrown into the fire. He’s a seasoned postseason starter who has been through these moments before, and that matters. The concerns are real, but counting him out would be a mistake.
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