The Yankees took a calculated gamble on Trent Grisham this offseason - and for now, it looks like they might’ve come out on top.
Back in November, New York wasn’t sure which way Grisham would lean on the $22.05 million qualifying offer for 2026. General manager Brian Cashman even called it a “50-50” proposition.
Fast forward a few months, and that uncertainty has turned into optimism. With the way the free-agent market spiraled this winter, Cashman now calls that $22 million price tag a “bargain.”
And honestly, there’s a case to be made.
Grisham is coming off a career year - 34 home runs, 82 walks, and an .811 OPS. All personal bests.
In a league where power and plate discipline are at a premium, those numbers stand out. That kind of production from a center fielder - especially one with Grisham’s defensive chops - doesn’t come cheap in today’s market.
So when you consider what similar outfielders have fetched in free agency, locking him in for one year at $22 million doesn’t sound so bad.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves - this isn’t a slam dunk just yet.
Had Grisham declined the qualifying offer, it’s tough to imagine another team stepping up with a deal that matched or exceeded that annual value. He likely wouldn’t have seen $22 million per year on the open market, and that’s part of the equation here. The Yankees didn’t necessarily steal him; they paid a premium to keep a player they believe can be a key contributor - but only if he keeps trending in the right direction.
That’s the big “if.”
If Grisham regresses or can’t replicate last season’s offensive output, the Yankees will be in a tricky spot. You don’t pay $22 million for a platoon bat or a fourth outfielder, and you certainly don’t want that kind of salary riding the bench. So if the bat goes cold, manager Aaron Boone is going to have to ride it out, hoping Grisham finds his swing again.
There’s pressure here - on both sides. For Grisham, this is a prove-it year in every sense.
He’s playing for his next contract, whether that’s in New York or elsewhere. For the Yankees, they’re banking on last season being the new normal, not an outlier.
If he delivers, this could go down as one of the savvier moves of the Yankees' offseason. If not, it becomes a cautionary tale about betting big on a breakout year.
One thing’s for sure: All eyes will be on Grisham this season - and $22 million has a way of turning up the spotlight.