Paul Blackburn didn’t arrive in New York with much fanfare, but he may have ended up as one of the Yankees’ best small bets of the winter.
The club made only modest bullpen additions last offseason. Ryan Yarbrough came in on a low-cost deal.
Angel Chivilli arrived in a trade with the Rockies. David Bednar was back in the closer role after coming over at the 2025 trade deadline, even as the Yankees lost Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, and Jonathan Loáisiga among others.
Blackburn fit right into that low-key group. The Yankees signed the former starter to a $2MM deal, and it turned out to be money well spent.
For most of his career, the 32-year-old Blackburn was the kind of backend starter teams hoped could soak up innings without much drama. He spent that stretch with the Athletics, then got moved to the Mets at the 2024 trade deadline.
His run there went nowhere fast; after 12 ordinary appearances, New York cut him loose in August of last season. The Yankees grabbed him afterward and used him as a long reliever down the stretch.
Even after that underwhelming look, the Yankees brought Blackburn back on a major league deal, and this time the payoff was enormous. He logged 85 innings with a 1.59 ERA out of Aaron Boone’s bullpen, the best ERA in the majors among pitchers who threw at least 80 innings.
Shohei Ohtani, Cam Schlittler, Jacob Misiorowski, and Chris Sale were the rest of the top five. Blackburn also finished with 11 holds and a save.
The bullpen move unlocked the usual stuff bump you see when a starter shifts into relief. All three of his fastballs - four-seamer, sinker, and cutter - gained 1-2 mph. The sinker remained Blackburn’s lead pitch, but it played differently in 2026, with three fewer inches of vertical break and a little more horizontal movement.
The biggest change, though, was the changeup. Blackburn used it less than 10% of the time in 2025.
That number shot all the way up to 21.4% this season, his highest rate since the shortened 2020 campaign. The pitch was devastating: opponents hit just .090 against it and slugged only .154.
It also carried a 12 Run Value, which made it one of the most effective offspeed offerings in the sport. Only Walbert Urena, Cristopher Sanchez, and Bradgley Rodriguez posted better changeups by Run Value this year.
Blackburn wasn’t doing it with a big swing-and-miss profile, either. His 20.5% strikeout rate was a touch above his career number, but not by much.
His edge came from getting the ball on the ground and limiting loud contact. He induced grounders at a 54.9% clip and ranked in the 86th percentile in average exit velocity.
Both the changeup and curveball held opponents to average exit velocities under 84 mph.
The shape of the arsenal brings Nick Martinez to mind, with the sinker-changeup pairing doing the heavy lifting and a cutter and curveball filling out the mix. The difference is that Martinez doesn’t get nearly as many groundballs. He creates similar soft contact, but more of it stays in the air.
There are caveats, of course. Blackburn’s 3.68 xERA, 3.92 xFIP, and especially his 5.85 SIERA tell a less flattering story than the ERA does.
A .230 BABIP and an 88.9% left-on-base rate aren’t numbers that usually stick around. But the homer prevention looks real, and he did it over a bigger workload than most relievers see.
That’s enough to keep the season from being treated like a fluke. Blackburn did more than survive in the bullpen; he became one of its best arms, and he earned himself another big-league deal in 2027.
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Ryan Weathers looked like a real candidate after a solid 2026 season, but the forearm injury he suffered late in the year complicates his case. Will Warren, meanwhile, brings the kind of durability teams value in April and beyond, having topped 150 innings in each of the past two seasons, even if his command can wander at times. For a club built to expect excellence from the front of the rotation, the final choice may come down to whether it wants the ceiling of a comeback candidate or the steadier profile of a workhorse who does not always have perfect feel. [Read more 🡒]