The Yankees have a choice on their hands, and it’s the kind that can shape October before it really starts.
Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon both beat the Rays this week. Both piled up eight strikeouts. But when the Yankees sit down to map out their Wild Card Series rotation, the bigger question is which one gives them the better shot against the Red Sox.
That’s the tension now in the Bronx: reputation versus recent form, October pedigree versus the guy who looks hottest right now. With the AL East already clinched by Tampa Bay and a best-of-three Wild Card Series set to begin at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, the Yankees need to decide who gets the ball in a series that could quickly turn into a defining test.
Rodon made his case in loud fashion Tuesday in the opener of a doubleheader. He threw eight scoreless innings against the Rays, gave up three hits, didn’t walk anyone and struck out eight. Along the way, he logged both his 1,500th career strikeout and his 100th career win while denying Tampa Bay a clinch that day.
The performance fit the larger trend. Rodon has now gone 26 straight starts without allowing more than three runs.
Since coming off the injured list in August, he has posted a 1.89 ERA with three straight quality starts. Over 16 outings in a season that was interrupted twice by elbow trouble, he carries a 2.67 ERA.
He’s also lined up well against Boston, which matters because the Yankees are likely to open against the Red Sox. Rodon had a 1.86 ERA in two starts against them this season. After Tuesday’s outing, Aaron Boone was quick to praise the left-hander.
“His stuff is really good, especially today with the heater and the profile of that fastball,” Boone said. “I think in a lot of ways his fastball is in a better place than it was last year, which was a great season for him.”
Cole responded Wednesday with a much-needed steady outing in the Yankees’ 9-2 win over the Rays. He went 5 2/3 innings, allowed two runs on three hits and struck out eight for his 10th win.
The strikeouts stood out most, because the swing-and-miss had disappeared during a rough stretch. This time, at least, there was a reminder of what he can still bring.
Cole finished the regular season at 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 22 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery in May. The outing wasn’t clean - he walked three and ran up a high pitch count - but it helped settle things after a shaky month. Boone had already hinted at his preference before the finale.
“I would expect Gerrit Cole to start, yes,” Boone said when asked whether Cole would pitch in a wild-card series.
Still, the matchup with Boston hangs over everything. Since joining the Yankees in 2020, Cole has a 5.93 ERA against the Red Sox in the regular season. His postseason line against them is even worse: seven runs in eight innings over two October appearances, including a three-run, two-inning wild-card loss at Fenway Park in 2021.
Against Tampa Bay, the numbers are better. His ERA versus the Rays is nearly two full runs lower than it is against Boston. That’s where the Yankees’ cleanest path starts to emerge: use Rodon against the Red Sox, then keep Cole available for a possible division series against the Rays if New York advances.
The recent trends only sharpen the contrast. Over his last four starts before Wednesday, Cole gave up 14 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings, a 5.56 ERA, even while walking only one batter. Rodon, by comparison, has been one of baseball’s best starters over roughly the same stretch, carrying a 1.86 ERA since late June.
There’s also the schedule to consider. Cam Schlittler can take Game 1 on regular rest, while Cole would be on five days and Fried and Rodon would both be available on extra rest. That gives Boone some room to sort out the order based on what he trusts most.
Boone has long leaned on Cole’s track record and October history, and there’s no denying the weight that carries. But Rodon is the pitcher surging at the right time, and the matchup against Boston pushes the argument even harder in his direction. Boone said after Tuesday that the Yankees would skip Rodon on Sunday and figure out the rest later.
The Wild Card Series begins Tuesday in the Bronx. The Yankees have two strong options for one crucial start, and the decision comes down to whether they want the familiar name or the sharper arm.
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