NEW YORK - The Yankees and Red Sox are headed into a weekend that could say plenty about both clubs, and maybe even more about where this race is going.
With only 30 games left in the regular season, the calendar has already started to feel like October. Boston comes in two games back of New York in both the AL East and Wild Card races, with both teams still chasing the first-place Rays.
Gerrit Cole put it plainly: “(the Sox) are definitely within striking distance. Obviously we want to be performing better up to this point in the season.”
That’s the kind of warning that tends to hang around a club like this. The Yankees are still talking like a team with a direct line to the World Series, but the Red Sox have already shown they can punch through that confidence.
Boston’s four-game sweep in Fenway from June 25-28 turned its season around, and the Sox haven’t looked back since. They’ve gone 41-14 since then, including a franchise-matching 15-game winning streak right after that Yankees series.
So when Aaron Judge said Thursday, “We owe them,” he was saying out loud what a lot of Yankees were already feeling.
There’s a real chance this all sets up another Yankees-Red Sox Wild Card Series, which would be a rematch of last October. New York won that one in three games and sent Boston home. This time, the Red Sox have built a different kind of problem for Aaron Boone’s club: left-handed pitching.
Boston is expected to throw at least three southpaws this weekend, with Patrick Sandoval, Jake Bennett and Ranger Suarez lined up to challenge a Yankees lineup that has had trouble against lefties. That puts Boone in a tricky spot with Jazz Chisholm, who’s hit .200 with a 41% strikeout ratio against lefties since Judge went on the injured list May 31, according to the New York Post.
Austin Wells has been even rougher in that split, batting .107 against lefties in the post-Judge injury stretch. Luis Garcia, meanwhile, brings power - 28 home runs combined, including his time with the Nationals this season - but is hitting only .212 against southpaws.
Paul Goldschmidt is the other piece of that puzzle. He’s batting just .203 since the All-Star break, but against lefties he’s been far better, hitting .308 compared with .201 against right-handers.
The Yankees still have to wait on Judge, who said his rehab from a fractured rib should be finished by early September and that there won’t be rehab games. That’s a leap, going from machines and batting practice straight into the middle of a pennant race. But it’s the kind of gamble Judge is willing to take, and the Yankees will gladly live with him at 75% if that’s what it comes to.
Judge also made sure to respect the opponent, saying, “(the Red Sox) have a great ball club over there. Before the season (started), they were the ones you kind of circled.”
The Yankees were circled too. They opened the year as Vegas favorites at 7-to-1 to win the American League pennant, and the numbers have only tightened since. FanGraphs now has them at 3-to-1, with the Rays at 4-to-1 and the Red Sox right behind at 5-to-1.
That’s the backdrop for a series that starts tonight in the Bronx, where New York has a few answers of its own.
Cam Schlittler gets the opener, and the Cy Young Award candidate has been a nightmare for Boston in three career appearances, posting a 0.96 ERA against the Red Sox. On Saturday, Max Fried is expected to come off the injured list and start one of the games in the doubleheader after dealing with a left elbow bone bruise. Fried won 19 games in 2025 and gives the Yankees another frontline arm if he’s able to pitch without pain.
And then there’s the broader rotation picture. Fried’s return means Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Schlittler and Fried are all available for the first time this season. That may not matter as much in a four-game series in August, but it could loom much larger in a five- or seven-game series down the line.
One scout put it this way a few weeks ago: “no one has the kind of depth the Yankees have. Their advantage is the middle and back end of their rotation.
Everyone’s got a top-notch No. 1 and No. 2.
But the Yankees have Schlittler (after Cole and Fried) as a No. 3, which is tough to beat.”
The Bronx crowd should help too. Yankee Stadium is usually a tough place for visiting teams, and with the Red Sox in town, it figures to be even more hostile.
That said, the Yankees have actually been best away from home this season. Their 41 road wins lead the majors. Still, the stadium on 161st Street and River Avenue is where Boston’s season got clipped last October, and Schlittler was the one who did it in Game 3: eight shutout innings, 12 strikeouts, and a clean exit for Red Sox hopes.
So yes, this weekend has plenty of layers. The standings are tight, the pitching matchups matter, Judge is still on the way back, and both clubs know exactly what’s at stake. Those seat belts better be snug.
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