If Cody Bellinger ends up in Toronto, the ripple effects could be felt all the way down to the Bronx.
That’s the message longtime Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay delivered when talking about the high-stakes free agency sweepstakes surrounding Bellinger. And he didn’t sugarcoat it: the worst-case scenario for the Yankees, in his eyes, would be watching Bellinger suit up for the Blue Jays.
“The worst case scenario for the Yankees would be if they lose Bellinger to the Blue Jays,” Kay said recently, laying out a scenario that could shift the balance of power in the AL East. And he’s not wrong - this isn’t just about losing out on a big bat. It’s about losing him to a division rival that’s already knocking on the door.
Kay pointed out that if the Yankees don’t land Bellinger and instead hand the bulk of the at-bats to young outfielder Jasson Domínguez, it could signal a shift in expectations - and not in New York’s favor. “Let’s all be honest with each other,” he said. “They move ahead of the Yankees in terms of expectations.”
That’s not just a gut feeling either. Kay suggested that even Vegas oddsmakers could flip the script, potentially slotting Toronto ahead of New York in the pecking order if Bellinger heads north of the border.
As it stands now, the Yankees are favored to win the most games in the American League and sit as the second choice to win the World Series - trailing only the star-studded Dodgers. But Kay was quick to remind fans that spending big doesn’t always translate to winning big.
He pointed to the Dodgers’ projected $420 million payroll this year - a staggering number - and noted that even with all that firepower, L.A. won just 93 games last season. That’s a far cry from the 116-win pace some had forecasted.
“The one thing that you can’t do, no matter how much money you spend, you can’t assure yourself that you’re going to win the World Series,” Kay said.
It’s a fair point. The Yankees, for all the criticism they take about being spenders without results, still had a strong 2025 campaign.
They led the majors in runs scored and finished with a 94-68 record. Sure, they were average against quality opponents - playing .500 ball against teams above .500 - but they took care of business against the rest of the league.
Still, Kay acknowledged that losing Bellinger would be a blow. “Is it going to be tough if they don’t get Bellinger?
Yeah, I’m not going to sit here and lie to you,” he said. The implication was clear: if the Yankees miss out on Bellinger, they can’t just stand pat.
“If they lose Bellinger, they better make another move, and that trade that Brian is working on, it better be something impressive - even to get back to where you were last year.”
That’s a tall order. But it also underscores how much pressure is on the Yankees front office this offseason. The margin for error in the American League is razor-thin, and a move like Bellinger to Toronto could be a game-changer.
Kay added that he’d feel less concerned if Bellinger signed with a National League team. The Yankees wouldn’t see him often, and the impact would be minimal in the regular season. But if he lands in Toronto?
“That’s the one that would hurt,” Kay said. “Because not only do they take him away from the Yankees, but they get him - and they probably move ahead of the Yankees in expectation.”
It’s a reminder that in baseball, sometimes the biggest moves aren’t just about who you get - they’re about who you keep from your rivals. And for the Yankees, the Bellinger sweepstakes could end up being a defining moment in how their 2026 season unfolds.