As pitchers and catchers prepare to report to Tampa on February 12, the New York Yankees are set to open spring training with a roster that, at first glance, looks awfully familiar. For a franchise with championship expectations, that sense of déjà vu has raised some eyebrows.
But if you ask Yankees GM Brian Cashman, this isn’t just a rerun of 2025. He’s adamant that the team has made meaningful upgrades-just maybe not in the flashy, headline-grabbing way fans were hoping for.
His case? Gerrit Cole is expected back midseason after missing last year, and the club has added arms like Angel Chivilli and Ryan Weathers, who could quietly reshape the pitching staff.
Toss in names like Hunter Schlittler, David Bednar, Jorbit Vivas, and Oswald Caballero-players acquired at or near last year’s trade deadline-and Cashman sees a roster that’s evolved, not stagnated.
He’s not alone. Longtime Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay echoed that sentiment, pointing to the team’s 94 wins last season as proof that this group is already playoff-caliber.
Add Cole, a full season of Schlittler, and bullpen reinforcements like Bednar? That’s not the same team, Kay argues-it’s a better one.
But here’s the thing: baseball isn’t won on paper, or in the press box. It’s a game of results, and when it comes to forecasting those results, we turn to data-driven models like ZiPS. And according to the latest ZiPS projections for the 2026 season, the Yankees might be in for a wake-up call.
ZiPS, which uses multi-year performance trends, aging curves, and injury risk to simulate a million potential outcomes, doesn’t exactly share Cashman’s optimism. As of late January, the model projects the Yankees to finish fourth in the AL East, seven wins shy of last year’s total. That’s not just a step back-it’s a stumble in a division that’s only getting tougher.
To be clear, this isn’t a doomsday scenario. ZiPS still gives New York a 60.3% chance of making the postseason.
And oddly enough, the model sees them with a 5.4% chance to win the World Series-higher than both the Red Sox (4.9%) and Blue Jays (4.8%). Only the Orioles edge them out at 5.8%.
So while the division outlook isn’t ideal, there’s still a path-albeit a narrow one-to October glory.
But here’s what that really tells us: the Yankees are stuck in the middle. After tying with Toronto atop the division last season, they’ve now fallen behind not just the Jays, but also Boston and Baltimore.
All three of those teams made aggressive moves this offseason. The Yankees?
They’ve mostly stood pat, banking on internal growth, returning stars, and a bit of bounce-back magic.
That strategy isn’t without merit. Getting Cole back is a massive boost.
A full season from Bednar in the bullpen could be a game-changer. And if young arms like Schlittler or Chivilli hit their stride, the rotation could surprise some people.
But projections like ZiPS aren’t swayed by hope or narrative. They’re built on cold, hard data. And right now, that data paints a picture of a Yankees team that hasn’t done enough to keep pace with the rest of the AL East arms race.
There’s still time for that to change. Spring training always brings surprises-players emerge, injuries happen, front offices make late moves. But as things stand today, the Yankees are looking up at a division that’s passed them by.
Losing ground to the Blue Jays is one thing. Getting leapfrogged by the Red Sox?
That’s the kind of thing that makes Yankees fans grind their teeth. But trailing the Orioles, a team that not long ago was in full rebuild mode?
That’s the gut punch.
The Bronx Bombers aren’t doomed. But for a team that measures success in rings, not wild card berths, “good enough” isn’t going to cut it. If this roster is truly different than last year’s, it’s time to prove it-because the rest of the division isn’t waiting around.