The Yankees have a bullpen lesson staring them in the face, and Paul Blackburn sits right in the middle of it.
Watching the Milwaukee Brewers ride a dominant relief group to a World Series title should have reinforced what New York already knows: a bullpen can’t be top-heavy and thin at the same time. That kind of setup is asking for trouble, and the Yankees learned that the hard way in 2026.
The Brewers didn’t pour huge money into their relief corps because of financial limits, but they still turned their bullpen into a strength. New York did something similar with Blackburn, only now the question is whether it should pay to keep the project going.
Blackburn’s rise has been one of the more unexpected stories of the Yankees’ season. The 33-year-old spent most of his career as a swingman and was barely hanging onto a roster spot before becoming a high-leverage weapon. The Yankees clearly saw something when they brought him back on a one-year, $2 million deal, and now they’re staring at the possibility of losing him after helping unlock his best work.
The interest in a reunion is real. Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reported that the Yankees have “strong interest” in retaining Blackburn, and it’s easy to understand why.
He threw 82 innings, seventh-most among MLB relievers, and finished with a 1.54 ERA out of the bullpen. Across 85 innings overall, he posted a 1.59 ERA.
For a team that wants more certainty in the late innings, that production matters.
But the deeper numbers complicate the picture.
Blackburn struck out 20.5% of hitters and walked 9.8%, both slightly below average marks. He also benefited from some favorable bounces.
His .230 BABIP was well below his career .305 mark, and his 88.9% left-on-base rate was far better than his 71.7% career average. Both figures also sit above league average, which helps explain why his ERA looked so shiny.
The estimators paint a less flattering picture. His 3.75 FIP and 3.92 xFIP suggest some regression is coming.
In other words, Blackburn looked like a dominant setup man on the surface, but the underlying numbers say he may have pitched more like a middling reliever. That still has value.
The issue is how much value, and at what price.
That’s where the Yankees have to make the hard call.
Jim Bowden of The Athletic projects Blackburn for a two-year, $22 million deal. That’s in the neighborhood of recent contracts for Luke Weaver and Blake Treinen, and only $2 million more than the two-year, $20 million deal Emilio Pagan opted out of with the Reds. Weaver, Treinen and Pagan all bring closer experience, while Blackburn does not.
So the Yankees are left with a familiar dilemma: keep the reliever they helped transform, or use that money on a more proven high-leverage arm. There’s obvious appeal in bringing Blackburn back, but the risk is just as obvious.
The better path may be to make sure David Bednar stays, add another major piece to set him up, and then bring in one more solid mid-tier arm. From there, the Yankees can keep building the next Blackburn with the options already in the system instead of paying premium money for the version they already have.
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