Yankees Face A Game 1 Decision That Could Define This Series

Carlos Rodn must overcome his postseason struggles to give the Yankees a crucial edge against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Carlos Rodón is heading into the postseason with something to prove, and the Yankees could use exactly that.

His October track record in New York has been rough. In six postseason appearances, Rodón owns a 6.92 ERA, with 20 earned runs allowed over 26 innings. The damage has come through the air, too: he has given up seven home runs in the postseason.

That’s not the version the Yankees need now. They don’t need the Rodón who was knocked around in a pivotal Game 2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 World Series.

They don’t need the one who surrendered six earned runs in last year’s ALDS before Aaron Judge’s late-game heroics saved the night. What they need is the pitcher they’ve seen during the regular season, when he’s been on the mound.

Even with his trips to the IL, Rodón has managed to avoid the kind of blowups that have haunted him in October. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start this season, and he hadn’t done it since the ALDS. The last time he gave up four earned runs in the regular season was Aug. 1, 2025, against the Miami Marlins.

That makes this postseason a real chance at redemption, and it could begin against the Tampa Bay Rays. Rodón faced them on Sept. 22 and was sharp in every way that matters: eight shutout innings, eight strikeouts, and just three hits allowed.

Yes, that outing came later in the season, and both clubs were already looking ahead to October. Still, if Rodón brings anything close to that version of himself, the Yankees can feel good about their chances at the Trop and at least hope to return home with a split.

The decision at the top of the rotation matters, too. It will be either Rodón or Gerrit Cole in Game 1, and Rodón looks like the steadier option right now. Cole has been inconsistent, and after coming back from Tommy John surgery, it’s hard to know which version of him will show up.

That uncertainty is exactly what the Yankees can’t afford. Two straight rough starts would be a brutal way to open the series, and it’s the kind of thing that can tilt everything early. The Yankees lived through that last year in Toronto, when Luis Gil didn’t go very deep in Game 1 and Max Fried was tagged for six earned runs in Game 2.

The good news for New York is that this rotation is in better shape than it was a year ago. The Rays’ lineup also doesn’t match the kind of punch Toronto brought last postseason.

Junior Caminero is the name they’ll have to circle, but beyond that, Tampa Bay offers more places to breathe than the Blue Jays did. That gives Rodón a path to flip the script, clean up his postseason résumé, and maybe help push the Yankees toward the ALCS and back into the World Series.

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