The Yankees are still talking like the AL East is alive for them, but the math keeps getting uglier.
New York sits five games behind the Rays entering Sunday morning, and FanGraphs gives the Yankees just a 2.8% shot at winning the division. The more likely outcome is another Wild Card meeting with the Red Sox, only this time it would come with the comfort of home-field advantage in the Bronx. That is a better setup than a road series, but it still leaves the Yankees in a worse spot than they wanted after trying to clean up the mess from 2025.
Last year, the Yankees and Blue Jays finished tied, and Toronto got the tiebreaker. This time, unless New York makes a real push against Tampa this week, the gap could end up even larger.
Inside the clubhouse, though, the message is not surrender. Cam Schlittler made that clear after the game.
"We've got to go on a good run," Schlittler said, according to MLB.com's Bryan Hoch. "It's going to be tough.
I think we've had opportunities all season to put ourselves ahead, and we haven't done a great job of that. There's still a chance, but we've got to play our (butts) off a little bit."
Cody Bellinger sounded the same note.
"Obviously, the goal is to win the division, rest your guys and get those off-days," Bellinger said, according to Hoch. "That's always goal number one.
Ultimately, World Series champions have come out of the Wild Card. We'll keep on fighting."
Aaron Boone also pointed out that if the Yankees sweep the Rays, the picture changes. He is right about that much.
A win on Sunday, followed by a sweep in Tampa, would pull the Yankees even heading into the final series against the Orioles. But that scenario feels like a long shot, and Boone has not exactly helped the case with decisions like Saturday’s ninth inning, when he went to Michael Fulmer instead of closer David Bednar in a tied game.
If the idea was to save Bednar for later, whether for the next series or the postseason, it reads like a team already thinking ahead instead of one still pressing to take the division.
For the Yankees to actually pull this off, they need a cleaner brand of baseball, and that begins at shortstop. They have not gotten much of that after George Lombard Jr.’s strong first week, and his defense has slipped.
They also need to sweep a Rays team that has not been easy to catch. Tampa has had New York’s number this year, with the Yankees going 3-6 against them.
So yes, there is still a path. But to take it, the Yankees would need a sharp turn, a hot streak, and no Aaron Judge. That is a lot to ask with so little time left, which is why skepticism feels like the sensible place to stand right now.
In Other News...
Yankees Needed This From George Lombard Jr More Than Ever
With Aaron Judge on the injured list because of a right calf strain, the Yankees needed someone young to step into a larger spotlight in Arizona, and George Lombard Jr. answered with one of the best games of his brief big league run. The rookie collected two hits and drove in three runs in a 9-2 win over the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, giving New York some much-needed production from a lineup suddenly missing its biggest bat.
Lombard Jr. delivered both a two-run single and a home run, the kind of timely damage that can change how a game feels when the Yankees are trying to keep moving without Judge. Gerrit Cole also provided a steadying presence, working six innings and allowing two runs while striking out six, adding another milestone to a night that gave New York a cleaner look at how its depth can hold up when the roster gets tested. [Read more 🡒]
Bernie Williams Is Giving Yankees Fans A Whole New Reason To Watch
Bernie Williams has never really been just a former Yankees center fielder, and this fall he is adding another high-profile stage to a second career that has quietly become part of his identity. Beginning Oct. 22 and running through Nov. 29, Williams will perform with the Tony- and Grammy-winning band behind Broadways Buena Vista Social Club at the Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre, giving fans another chance to see him in a setting far removed from the old Yankee Stadium outfield.
For Yankees followers, it is a neat crossover that brings one of the franchises most beloved alumni into the Broadway spotlight at the same time former major league infielder Jose Iglesias is also in the show. The result is a rare baseball-to-theater connection that fits Williams longstanding music background and adds a little extra intrigue for anyone who still associates him with the pinstripes. [Read more 🡒]
Yankees Suddenly Face A Brutal Aaron Judge Timeline
Aaron Judges trip to the 10-day injured list has put the Yankees in a familiar but unwelcome spot, waiting on the health of the player who still shapes nearly everything they do. The calf strain, specifically in the soleus muscle, is the latest setback in a season where the margins around Judge have mattered constantly, and Boone said the club will try to get him back before the year is over. Judge has said he wants to return by the postseason, but for now there is no firm timeline.
What makes this latest pause so tricky is the lack of clarity around just how long the Yankees may be without him. Boone did not offer any further detail on the severity of the injury, leaving the team to manage both the roster and the uncertainty that comes with losing its centerpiece. For a club built to contend now, the question is no longer only when Judge can swing again, but how much time the Yankees can afford to spend guessing. [Read more 🡒]