September has arrived, and for the Yankees, the final month of the regular season is loaded with unfinished business. They began Monday night with a four-game cushion over the Red Sox for the top wild card and home-field edge in the first round, while trailing the Rays by 4.5 games in the division race and the chase for a first-round bye.
Then came a 10-1 loss to the Los Angeles Angels, and that wild card margin shrank to three games. There’s still enough time for the standings to keep shifting, but New York already knows it’s headed for meaningful games after Game 162. What happens over these next 24 games could shape not just the standings, but the roster decisions that follow.
One of the biggest September storylines is the bullpen, and it starts with what the Yankees didn’t do at the August 3rd trade deadline. They chose not to add there, whether because the asking prices were too high, because they trusted a unit that had been top-five in ERA all year, or because they believed reinforcements would come from within once injured arms returned.
A month later, that call looks shaky. Max Fried and Ryan Weathers have both been slowed by injuries, which has pushed back Will Warren’s likely move into the bullpen.
Weathers’ situation could keep him out until the start of the postseason, meaning the idea of that super rotation may never really materialize. Then Fernando Cruz went down with a season-ending elbow injury, and the picture got even messier.
Since then, the Yankees have kept shopping in the bargain bin, hoping Matt Blake can squeeze value out of veteran additions. They signed Michael Fulmer, Justin Topa and Eli Morgan in the search for help.
Fulmer has already appeared in two games, Topa was DFA’d and released as a stopgap, and Morgan is still in Triple-A. On Monday, they added another name to the mix by claiming Royals right-hander John Schreiber off waivers.
For now, the circle of trust is small: David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn. Everyone else has about four weeks to make a case.
There are a few possible paths. Tim Hill has been effective lately, but his numbers against right-handed hitters - .286 AVG/.870 OPS - are hard to ignore.
Fulmer and Schreiber have some intriguing traits, though Blake will need time to work his usual magic. Yerry de los Santos, once he returns after being optioned, can help in multi-inning work, and so can Luis Gil and Ryan Yarbrough.
Then there’s the injury angle. Clarke Schmidt and Weathers could still become part of the answer.
Schmidt has relief experience from 2022, when he worked in medium leverage and carried that role into the postseason. Weathers, meanwhile, has the kind of electric stuff that would play in any role.
The Yankees still need to see whether either one can help before October arrives.
The bullpen isn’t the only puzzle. The Yankees also have to figure out the position-player side of the roster, especially once Aaron Judge comes back.
Right now, Ryan McMahon has filled one of the two extra September roster spots after coming off the injured list. But Judge’s return will force another decision soon, and that choice may not be as straightforward as it looks. Amed Rosario and Spencer Jones are the most obvious candidates to be squeezed out, though the Yankees could also lean into a thin bullpen and carry 15 position players with just 13 pitchers to keep everyone.
The bigger roster question may come in October. If the Yankees reach a Wild Card Series at full strength, what kind of bench do they want?
Speed? Pinch-hitting?
Versatility? The only clear bench locks, assuming health, are a backup catcher, José Caballero, Heliot Ramos and Paul Goldschmidt.
Since teams rarely carry 13 pitchers in a Wild Card Series, the fifth bench spot is likely to be sorted out soon enough.
But the most important issue sits right at the center of the lineup. Before Judge landed on the injured list as June began, the Yankees were averaging 5.17 runs per game, best in the American League. Since he went down, even with a few strong stretches, they’ve been at 4.06 runs per game, which ranked 24th in the majors before Monday night’s game against the Angels.
There are hints the current core is starting to move in the right direction, but the offense still isn’t where the Yankees want it to be. Part of that is simple: they’re still waiting on their captain.
When Judge returns, possibly as soon as next homestand, the Yankees have to find out whether the whole attack can flip back on. Can Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger get back to their April and May form with Judge batting behind them?
Will Judge himself look like Judge again? And if he does, will that be enough?
That’s the question that towers over everything else. If the player they’ve built around for a decade answers the bell, the Yankees believe the ceiling changes fast.
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