The Yankees didn’t come out of the trade deadline with a reliever, and that decision looks even stranger when you zoom in on the state of the bullpen. Yes, the group owns a 3.13 ERA, second-best in baseball.
But once you get beyond David Bednar, Brent Headrick, Paul Blackburn and Fernando Cruz - when his splitter is behaving - the depth thins out fast. Tim Hill hasn’t looked like the version the Yankees saw in 2024 or even last year, and Ryan Yarbrough is drifting toward DFA territory.
That’s why Paul Sewald suddenly makes sense as a name to watch.
The Diamondbacks designated their closer for assignment on Monday, cutting loose a pitcher who helped power their World Series run. The surface numbers are rough: a 6.23 ERA in 39 innings. But there’s still enough underneath that a team could talk itself into a turnaround.
Sewald’s contact quality numbers are ugly in spots, with a 15.7% barrel rate and a 42.6% hard-hit rate. Even so, hitters are only putting up a .228 expected batting average against him, which tells you they’re not squaring him up all that often. The problem is what happens when they do connect: the ball is leaving in a hurry.
The strikeout and walk profile is still workable. Sewald has a 27% strikeout rate and a 5.5% walk rate, and that strikeout-to-walk ratio sits in the neighborhood of Headrick’s 29.3-7.9 K-BB. The difference is obvious: one is giving up home runs, and the other isn’t.
There’s also the question of how he’s being used. Sewald is basically a two-pitch arm, with a cutter he’s thrown just five times this season.
That makes it tough to bank on a simple pitch mix tweak fixing everything. But there is at least one adjustment an acquiring club could try: flipping the balance between his sweeper and fastball.
Right now, Sewald leans on the fastball 58.6% of the time and the sweeper 40.6%. The results favor the sweeper by a lot. Opponents are hitting .190 with a .448 slugging percentage against it, while they’re hitting .256 with a .589 slugging percentage off the fastball.
That’s the kind of profile that tends to draw interest. Every team looking at Sewald is staring at the same strikeout numbers and probably thinking it can be the one to sort him out.
As he works his way down the waiver wire, there’s a real chance someone else grabs him first. The Yankees’ best shot is that the rest of the league keeps hesitating long enough for him to land on their doorstep.
If he does get there, Sewald could be worth the swing. The fixes might come down to usage, or even something as basic as his release point.
But the larger issue remains the same: it would have been a lot easier if Brian Cashman had handled the bullpen at the deadline, or even last winter. Now the Yankees may have to hope a reclamation project falls to them on waivers.
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