The Yankees are leaning on Gerrit Cole for Game 1 of the Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays on October 3, and on paper that choice runs straight into the numbers.
Aaron Boone made the call after New York’s blowout of the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, and while handing the ball to a pitcher with Cole’s résumé is hardly shocking, the 2026 split data points in another direction. Carlos Rodón looks like the cleaner matchup play against a Rays lineup that has been far less dangerous against left-handed pitching.
That’s the heart of the debate. Tampa Bay has been one of baseball’s better offenses against righties this season, ranking fourth in team OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Against left-handers, that production drops all the way to 25th.
The Rays’ slash line against southpaws tells the same story: .248/.315/.364. They did pile up 436 hits off lefties, fifth-most in the majors, but only 36 of those went over the fence. That total was tied with the Miami Marlins for the fewest home runs against left-handed pitching in baseball.
Against right-handed pitchers, though, Tampa Bay looked much more like a power lineup. The Rays posted a .420 slugging percentage and hit 133 home runs.
Junior Caminero was a huge part of that damage, launching 34 homers against righties by himself. That’s nearly as many as the Rays hit against lefties as a team.
So yes, the analytics angle points toward Rodón. But Boone is choosing to trust Cole’s track record, and that’s where the story gets interesting.
Cole had to work through some rust after missing all of 2025, and the regular season wasn’t spotless. Right-handed hitters put up a .702 OPS against him, which is nearly 60 points above his career mark. Still, he never looked overwhelmed, and he settled in as the year went on.
Rodón’s numbers against righties were stronger this season. In 214 at-bats, right-handed batters managed just a .529 OPS against him, roughly 170 points below his career average. It’s a small sample, but it showed a sharper ability to handle that side of the plate in 2026.
Even so, Cole brings something Rodón can’t match: postseason mileage. He has 22 career playoff starts and 133.1 innings under his belt, with a 2.77 ERA and 1.020 WHIP. That kind of experience matters when the regular-season script gets thrown out.
And Cole has shown before that he can deliver on that stage. If he can get his fastball up to 97+, the Yankees have a clear reason for believing the matchup still works, even if the raw numbers say otherwise.
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