The Yankees head into Baltimore on Tuesday night carrying a few different storylines at once: a six-game road trip, a lineup that has had trouble cashing in runs, and a three-game series against an Orioles club that somehow sits in the final American League Wild Card spot.
New York just managed to avoid a sweep in Toronto, edging the Blue Jays 4-3 in extra innings on Sunday. The pitching staff has mostly held up its end of the bargain, but the offense has been a different story. This month, the Yankees have scored two or fewer runs in eight games, and they’ve gone 3-6 in those contests.
That puts a lot of pressure on the series opener, where Will Warren gets the ball for New York. It’s a spot he needs to make count.
Warren has had a rough month, and the numbers back that up. In two starts, the 27-year-old right-hander owns a 7.71 ERA and a .333 opponents’ batting average.
He’s given up 13 hits, eight earned runs and three homers. The trend line hasn’t been pretty either: his ERA sat at 2.59 in March/April, then climbed to 3.82 in May, 5.49 in June, 5.47 in July, and is now nearly 8.00 this month.
There is one encouraging wrinkle for New York. Warren has handled Baltimore well this season, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA while holding the Orioles to a .156 average. That said, asking him to deliver a quality start while the Yankees’ bats are this quiet is still a risky bet.
Baltimore will counter with Shane Baz in the opener. Baz comes in with a 4-12 record and a 4.00 ERA across 24 starts, and the Orioles have dropped his last five outings. He’s carrying a 4.15 ERA this month, and the deeper numbers aren’t exactly flattering: opponents are hitting .268 against him this season, a career worst, and his 42.5 hard-hit rate is the second-highest of his career.
The Yankees already saw Baz once this year in the Bronx, and they made him pay. In a 12-1 win, New York tagged him for six runs, five earned, and five hits, including a home run. Baz also struggled to find the strike zone, walking five while striking out four.
After Warren, the Yankees will send Max Fried out for the second game, and he’s been rolling. The left-hander has a 1.08 ERA this month while limiting opponents to a .179 average. He’s also been stingy in another way, allowing just 3.3 hits per start in August.
That’s bad news for an Orioles lineup that is hitting only .239 against left-handed pitching, which ranks 17th in the majors. Baltimore has had some success against Fried this season, though, collecting 11 hits and six earned runs across two starts. The Orioles won one of those games, coming on May 13.
Baltimore will then turn to Chris Bassitt in the middle game. The 37-year-old veteran is 4-4 with a 5.11 ERA in 13 appearances, 11 of them starts. He’s been much worse away from home, where he’s 1-3 with a 7.28 ERA, compared with a 3-1 mark and 3.09 ERA at home.
Bassitt missed significant time after back surgery in late June, following an earlier stint on the injured list that month. He returned last week against the Rays and allowed five hits, three walks and two earned runs while striking out three in 5.1 innings. With that being his second start back, the Yankees will be watching to see whether he builds on that outing.
The finale brings Gerrit Cole against Dean Kremer, and that matchup has the look of the best one in the series. Cole has been excellent this month, going 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in three starts.
After surrendering seven homers in June and four in July, he hasn’t allowed one this month. He hasn’t faced Baltimore yet this season, but his career line against the Orioles is strong: 7-3 with a 2.39 ERA in 15 starts.
New York should like its chances with Cole on the mound, especially if the offense can give him support. But Kremer has been solid at home, where he’s 3-5 with a 3.34 ERA and a .188 OBA in 11 starts. The 29-year-old has also worked six innings in back-to-back starts, and he’s already seen the Yankees twice this season, going 1-1.
The most recent meeting came on May 13 at Camden Yards, when Kremer threw six shutout innings of one-hit ball, walked three and struck out seven. With that in mind, the Yankees can’t assume the series will just belong to Cole, even if he’s giving them their best shot at winning the set - or maybe taking all three.
The Yankees may have the edge on paper in the finale, but the middle and opener both come with enough volatility to keep this series interesting from the first pitch.
In Other News...
Yankees Roster Crunch Could Push Out An Expensive Veteran Bat
The Yankees lineup and roster picture is getting tighter by the day as Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton move closer to returning. Recent additions such as Luis Garca Jr. and Heliot Ramos have only added to the crowd, leaving the club to juggle playing time and roster spots while trying to keep everyone involved as the stretch run approaches.
Septembers roster expansion will help, but it will not solve everything, and the pressure point is becoming harder to ignore. New York still has to decide how much room there is for younger players, including Spencer Jones, as the veterans around him continue to return to health and the front office weighs whether the current mix can hold together without a more painful subtraction. [Read more 🡒]
Yankees Rotation Plans Just Took Another Hit With Max Fried
Max Frieds return to the Yankees rotation did not last long, and that is a problem for a staff already trying to piece together the rest of the season. The left-hander has gone back on the injured list with the same left elbow issue that interrupted his year earlier, leaving New York to juggle its pitching plans again at a time when depth was already thin.
For the Yankees, the timing stings as much as the diagnosis. Fried had only recently gotten back from his previous absence, and now the club has to reassess how long it can count on him while other pitchers remain sidelined. With the rotation and bullpen both under strain, every setback makes the margin for error a little smaller. [Read more 🡒]
Yankees Missed A Bullpen Move That Looks Worse Right Now
The Yankees have spent plenty of time trying to patch together a bullpen that has been asked to do too much, with some relievers struggling and others carrying an heavy workload. At the trade deadline, the club passed on a few relief options that might have helped lighten the load, and that decision looks more notable now as the relief group continues to wobble.
One name that stands out is a hard-throwing Angels reliever who has flashed real late-inning upside since coming back from a shoulder injury. He is back to showing the kind of velocity that makes him a tough look for hitters, and the Yankees were among the teams that could have explored that kind of arm boost. For a bullpen in need of stability, missing on that sort of power arm is the kind of deadline choice that can linger. [Read more 🡒]