The Red Sox may still have a path to the Bronx, but the bracket math has gotten messy enough that Boston could end up somewhere else entirely.
With four games left in the regular season, the Red Sox are sitting in the second American League Wild Card spot at 85-73. The Yankees rematch at Yankee Stadium once looked like the likely destination. Now, not so fast.
Cleveland enters Thursday night’s rubber match against Boston at 82-76, one game ahead of the White Sox in the third Wild Card spot. Chicago is four games back of Boston and cannot catch the Red Sox because Boston owns the tiebreaker. But if Cleveland beats Boston on Thursday and all three clubs finish 85-77, the whole thing turns into a three-way tiebreaker mess.
In that scenario, the White Sox would take the AL Central because they hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland. That leaves Boston and Cleveland to settle the final Wild Card seeding between themselves.
Right now, the Red Sox own the tiebreaker over the Guardians thanks to a 3-2 head-to-head edge this season. But if Cleveland wins Thursday’s finale, it would grab the tiebreaker because of its better interdivision record.
That would flip the board. Cleveland would go to Yankee Stadium as the No. 5 seed, while Boston would be sent to face the American League West winner - either the Texas Rangers or the Houston Astros.
So the clean version is this: Boston, Cleveland and Chicago could all end up at 85-77. Chicago would win the division in a three-way tiebreaker, then Cleveland and Boston would be left to sort out the final Wild Card spot. If Cleveland wins Thursday and the teams all finish level, the Guardians would pass Boston and claim the No. 5 seed.
Unlikely? Sure. But not impossible.
Boston still has plenty of work to do, starting with Thursday night’s game at Fenway Park. The Red Sox also have a rainy three-game series against the Chicago Cubs coming up, and Sunday’s finale has already been moved up to Friday as the first game of a split doubleheader. The Cubs will have their own National League Wild Card seeding on the line.
Cleveland finishes its season on the road against the Kansas City Royals after Thursday. Chicago plays the Royals on Thursday before hosting the Colorado Rockies, the worst team in baseball.
Ranger Suarez will try to make the whole tiebreaker puzzle irrelevant when he starts against Cleveland on Thursday night. First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET.
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