The Yankees enter Game 1 of the American League wild card round as the favorite, and they’ll try to take the first step toward another October showdown with Boston on Tuesday, Sept. 29 at 8:00 p.m. EST in New York.
This is the second straight season these two teams have met in the wild card round, and the stakes are straightforward: the winner moves on to face the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. Even with Aaron Judge dealing with a calf injury, oddsmakers still have New York positioned ahead of Boston.
New York has already mapped out its pitching plan for the series, announcing Cam Schlittler for Game 1, Max Fried for Game 2 and Gerrit Cole if a Game 3 becomes necessary. Schlittler’s track record against the Red Sox is encouraging for the Yankees, too.
He made four regular-season starts against Boston and helped New York go 3-1 in those games. In the lone loss, he gave up four runs, though none of them were earned, and he never allowed more than one earned run in any of his outings against the Sox.
Boston has not named its Game 1 starter yet, but Payton Tolle, Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray are the options mentioned, and it would not be a surprise if that trio is used in some order across the series.
The regular-season numbers also point to a tight, familiar matchup. New York won seven of the 13 meetings between the clubs and held Boston to a .199 team batting average. The Yankees also had the upper hand in a four-game series in August, winning three times and outscoring the Red Sox 25-3 across the final two games.
Home field gives New York a slight edge in the opener. The Yankees finished 12 games over .500 at home, while Boston was 11 games over .500 on the road. That said, the series price still hints at a competitive battle, and Judge’s injury is one reason a long series would not be a shock.
Boston’s biggest issue may be its offense. The Red Sox ended the regular season 19th in MLB in OPS, compared with 11th for New York.
Over the final 30 days, Boston slid all the way to 29th in both OPS and batting average. That’s a rough place to be against a Yankees pitching staff that led the league in ERA during the regular season.
Pitching should be the story throughout the series. Boston finished third in team ERA and first in bullpen ERA, while New York ranked second in bullpen ERA.
That combination points toward low-scoring games, even if the Yankees’ offense carries the higher ceiling. New York finished ahead of Boston in Weighted Runs Created Plus and runs scored, and it also hit the second-most home runs in baseball.
These clubs already met in the 2025 AL wild card round, and New York won that series in three games after Boston took Game 1.
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If that plan holds, the Yankees are staring at a tougher opener than many expected, with the Red Sox lining up Sonny Gray in Game 2 and Ranger Suarez in Game 3. Gray gives Boston a veteran edge as the staff ace, while Suarez brings postseason experience, so New York will have to be ready for a series that could demand immediate adjustments rather than a slow feel-out period. [Read more 🡒]