The Boston Red Sox have already punched their ticket to October, and one MLB executive thinks their run may not stop there.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the unnamed executive sees Boston going all the way to the American League pennant, even with the Red Sox entering the postseason as the No. 5 seed. The forecast comes with a pretty clear blueprint: a scorching offense, top-tier pitching, and a bracket that looks more manageable than the one waiting on the National League side.
“The Red Sox might be the No. 5 seed, but they're going to win the American League pennant,” Passan shared about an MLB executive's prediction.
A big part of the case starts with the bats. Since the All-Star break, one evaluator pointed out, Boston has had the best offense in the AL, according to Passan. That kind of production gives any team a real chance to survive a short playoff series, and the Red Sox have plenty of names fueling it, including Willson Contreras, Roman Anthony, Caleb Durbin, and Adley Rutschman.
Pitching is the other major pillar. Passan wrote that Boston is also “an MLB-best in fielding independent pitching (FIP), a predictive metric that suggests they will continue to throw well,” which points to a staff that can hold up even under postseason pressure.
That staff includes Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, Jake Bennett, Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, Erik Miller, and others, giving the Red Sox both rotation depth and bullpen options heading into October.
Then there’s the path itself. Boston is set to open against the New York Yankees in the Wild Card round, with the Tampa Bay Rays waiting in the ALDS if the Red Sox advance. Even so, Passan noted the league setup may help Boston more than people realize.
“And, perhaps the most helpful of all, it's the AL, where the path to the World Series is a sandy beach compared to the jungle of the National League.”
If the Red Sox get through the Yankees and Rays, they would then face one of the Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, or an AL West team in the ALCS. Passan’s reasoning is that neither Cleveland nor Chicago looks like a complete team, while the AL West winner could even come in with a record under .500.
Put it all together, and the executive’s prediction starts to make sense: Boston has the best offense in the league since the break, a pitching staff built on strong underlying numbers, and a playoff road that appears less punishing than the one on the other side of the bracket.
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