Labor Day is gone and the MLB stretch run is here, which means Tuesday’s 15-game slate is packed with home run chances. The card includes a few big names, but the best power plays all come with clear paths to the seats.
Aaron Judge is the headliner. The Yankees slugger is back in the lineup Tuesday night for the first time since May 31 after dealing with a rib injury, and the setup at home against Colorado looks about as inviting as it gets.
Judge had 17 homers in 59 games before the shutdown, and he was working with a .907 OPS at that point. Against right-handed pitching this year, 12 of those 17 blasts came off righties, and he was even better at home before landing on the injured list, batting .268 with a .996 OPS.
The Rockies are sending Gabriel Hughes to the mound, and the numbers don’t flatter him: a 6.19 ERA, plus at least one homer allowed in every August start. Colorado’s bullpen hasn’t exactly been a safety net either, with a 4.77 ERA that ranks fifth worst in MLB.
Mookie Betts is another strong swing on Tuesday after going deep Monday night for his 18th homer of the season. The Dodgers star draws Nick Lodolo and the Reds, and Lodolo has been a shaky matchup all year with a 5.08 ERA and 16 homers allowed in 17 appearances.
Since Aug. 1, the lefty has given up seven home runs and has been tagged for 12 runs over his last three starts. Betts hasn’t been at his usual All-Star level this season - he’s hitting .246 with 18 homers and a .730 OPS - but he’s heating up at the right time.
Over the last week, he’s batting .360 with two home runs, and over the last 28 days he’s gone deep five times while hitting .305 with a .914 OPS. He’s only 1-for-5 lifetime against Lodolo, but the price north of 4/1 makes him worth a look.
Pete Alonso rounds out the group, and he’s been one of the best offseason additions in baseball this year. The Orioles slugger is hitting .266 with 33 home runs and an .853 OPS, and his recent form is even louder: .333 with eight home runs and a 1.029 OPS over the last four weeks.
Baltimore gets Cleveland on Tuesday evening, with Tanner Bibee taking the ball for the Guardians. Bibee has posted a 4.06 ERA, but the bigger issue is the long ball - he’s surrendered 26 home runs in 29 appearances.
Alonso has also handled him well in their head-to-head meetings, going 3-for-6. It may not be the best home run prop price, but Bibee’s home run problems make Alonso a live fade target in a matchup between two potential AL wild card teams.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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