Gerrit Cole’s recent run has put the Yankees in a strange spot. The velocity is there, the strikes are there, even the command numbers look strong. And yet the ball is still being smoked.
That’s the puzzle at the center of Cole’s latest stretch, and it’s why the conversation has drifted toward ABS. After the Mets tagged him on Saturday harder than any team has in his 296 career starts tracked by Statcast, Cole floated the idea that the challenge system may be making life tougher for pitchers across the board.
The numbers from that outing were brutal. The Mets hit 14 pitches of his at 95 mph or harder.
Before this month, Cole had never given up more than 11 hard-hit balls in a start. Now he has stacked up new highs in three straight September outings: 12, then 11, then 14.
He also ran into a wall with his fastball. The Mets took 40 swings against him and missed just three times, which tied a career low. Cole threw 39 four-seamers and didn’t get a single whiff, only the fourth time he has reached that number without a swing-and-miss and the first such game in nine years.
Afterward, Cole said the environment has made things tougher for pitchers.
“I think just in general, yeah, it’s been a little bit of a challenge,” Cole told reporters after the game. “I think it’s hard to compare to previous years without pitching with the ABS.
I think maybe chase and swing-and-miss across the board is down. So, trying to find where those numbers would be relative to this environment is something that we need to navigate.”
That’s a fair question, but the broader picture doesn’t fully back up the idea that ABS has transformed the sport. Based on the minor league testing that came before it, the expectation was that the system might push walks up and strikeouts down.
Walks have indeed climbed 6.7 percent to their highest full-season rate in 15 years. Strikeouts, though, have stayed flat.
So is Cole onto something about chase and swing-and-miss being down? The answer is only partly.
ABS has mattered, but not in the sweeping way Cole’s comments might suggest. Its impact has been more muted than dramatic, with a few high-leverage reversals standing out more than any wholesale rewrite of the game.
What is clear is that Cole is fighting his own issues right now. As of today, he would not make the Yankees’ wild-card roster.
Cam Schlittler, Max Fried and Carlos Rodon are all pitching better than him at the moment, though that could still change with two starts left. The Yankees don’t need a fourth starter, and Cole is not a bullpen option.
Over his last four starts, Cole is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA. He has struck out 17 batters in that span, while allowing eight home runs and a career-worst 45 hard-hit balls.
And that’s what makes this stretch so unusual. His four-seam fastball is still sitting at 96.9 mph.
His walk rate is at a career low. His strike percentage and first-pitch strike percentage are both career bests.
The problem is not whether he’s throwing strikes. The problem is what’s happening when hitters put the bat on the ball.
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