A rough contract year can change the math fast, and a few pending free agents have made things harder on themselves heading into the offseason. The talent is still there in spots, but this year’s production has not matched the price tags these players were hoping to command.
Jazz Chisholm set the tone early by putting a huge number out there himself, saying he wanted 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases. The steals part is at least within reach - he’s on pace for 46 - but the power never showed up. Chisholm won’t come close to 30 homers, and this has turned into one of the weakest offensive seasons of his career.
The 2025 Silver Slugger winner is tracking toward career lows in batting average (.221), on-base percentage (.299) and slugging percentage (.397), while his strikeout rate has climbed to 30.1% from 27.9% last season. He’s still only 28, but this is not the kind of platform year that helps a player entering free agency for the first time. It also likely pushes him out of the Yankees’ long-term picture.
George Springer looked like a very different player a year ago, when he posted a career-best .959 OPS in 2025. This season has been a sharp step back. The soon-to-be 37-year-old has seen his OPS fall by more than 250 points to .706, a below-average mark that reflects just how far the bat has slipped.
Injuries have played a part, including a fractured toe, and the defensive decline matters too. Springer has appeared in only two games in the outfield this season after playing 54 there last year, so the days of him helping a club all over the field are basically over. Given the age, the injuries and the down year, a modest one-year deal feels like the most likely outcome.
Freddy Peralta’s path has been messy, too. The Mets gave up a valuable prospect package to get him from Milwaukee to Queens, but he didn’t even make it through the full season there before being sent to the Rays at the trade deadline. Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly unlocked him either, though Wednesday’s outing against the Tigers - 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K - at least gave him something positive to build on.
The overall numbers are still ugly. Peralta has a 5.60 ERA in five starts with the Rays, and among 54 qualified starters this season, his 5.11 ERA is second worst, ahead of only Merrill Kelly.
His strikeout rate is the worst of his career, his walk rate is up, and he has already allowed more home runs in six fewer starts than he did all of last season. With free agency approaching and Peralta now on the wrong side of 30, the timing could not be worse.
Bo Bichette has had a difficult first year with the Mets, even if the early months were the worst stretch and he has improved since then. The bigger issue is what comes next. He will almost certainly opt in to the second year of his contract in New York, where he is set to make $42 million, and that number looks far out of reach on the open market after this season.
Bichette’s line tells the story: a .704 OPS, 14 home runs and 66 RBIs. For a 28-year-old who would normally be positioned for a strong free-agent market, that kind of production leaves plenty of money on the table.
Luis Robert has had a different kind of season, one defined by missed time. A back injury has limited him to 53 games in his first year in New York, and while his .737 OPS is better than his last two seasons, it still doesn’t jump off the page. The rest of his game has also taken a hit.
Last year, Robert swiped 33 bags in 110 games. This year, he has only two steals and has been caught three times.
His center-field defense has settled around average after years of being largely excellent, and while there are some encouraging signs at the plate - a 23.9% strikeout rate, down from 26% last year and 33.2% in ’24, plus a career-best 10.9% walk rate - availability remains the biggest concern. He has missed at least 50 games in each of the last three seasons, and that will weigh on his value.
Eugenio Suárez came into the year after a monster power season, when he hit 49 home runs with the Diamondbacks and Mariners. But his one-year, $15 million deal with the Reds has not produced a similar payoff. The offense has backed up badly, and the drop is hard to ignore.
Suárez posted a .824 OPS last season. This year, he’s down to .696, which is below league average and not what you want from a player who no longer spends much time at third base.
He has a -0.5 fWAR, with 18 homers and 53 RBIs in 102 games, and his 34.8% strikeout rate ranks in the first percentile among qualified major leaguers. At 35, with the bat trending the wrong way, he may have trouble finding a guaranteed major-league contract.
Zac Gallen’s year has been another painful one. He declined a $22 million qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks last offseason, then ended up signing the same deal with Arizona in February after the market didn’t break his way. The result in 2026 has only made matters worse.
Through 19 starts, Gallen has a 6.34 ERA, along with 61 strikeouts and 31 walks in 98 innings. His strikeout rate had already dipped to a career-low 21.5% last season, and now it’s down to 13.9%.
Hitters have done damage against his fastball, batting .331 with a .545 slugging percentage against it. He’s currently on the 60-day IL and is expected back in September, though the hope is that he can at least finish with something better in hand before free agency.
Even then, there’s no guarantee he’ll be starting if he returns, since he may have to do it out of the bullpen after hurting the Diamondbacks’ playoff chances for much of the season.
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Yankees Face A Risky Aaron Judge Decision As Lineup Gets Crowded
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The ripple effects go beyond just fitting bats into the order. If Judge is DH-only, the Yankees would have to decide whether to push him back into the outfield, shift Garca around, or reshuffle someone else to preserve the best defensive alignment while also keeping injury risk in mind. It is the kind of decision that can look simple on paper and become complicated fast once defensive metrics and health concerns enter the conversation. [Read more 🡒]