The postseason home run market is lined up with a little bit of everything on Wednesday: a Braves bat who can change a game with one swing, a Yankees slugger set up by the short porch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong trying to shake off a quiet opener with Chicago’s season hanging in the balance.
Tuesday’s Game 1 slate was a reminder of how fast playoff games can turn. Austin Riley delivered the loudest swing of the day, launching a three-run shot in the bottom of the eighth to put Atlanta in front.
Ben Rice went deep twice for the Yankees. Colson Montgomery and Nelson Velasquez left the yard in White Sox-Astros.
And in the nightcap, the Padres got three homers, including first-inning blasts from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.
That kind of power binge is exactly why Matt Olson is on the radar in Atlanta’s Game 2. He didn’t get much going in Game 1, finishing 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, but he arrives with some real recent form behind him. Olson hit .306 with three homers and an .831 OPS over the final two weeks of the regular season, and he finished the year with 41 home runs overall.
The price is doing a lot of the work here too. Olson is listed at +534, and he has a solid history against Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez, going 6-for-23 with two doubles, two homers and a .900 OPS.
Sanchez has also been giving up damage late in the year. He allowed 19 home runs in 33 starts, including five over his final four outings, and finished September with a 5.12 ERA.
Olson also hit better against lefties than righties in the regular season, and 16 of his 41 homers came against southpaws.
In New York, the call is Luis Garcia Jr. to do some damage against Sonny Gray in Game 2. Garcia didn’t start against lefty Payton Tolle in Game 1, though he did come off the bench for a pinch-hit appearance.
He hit a ball up the middle that turned into a double play for Boston, even if the Yankees still scored a run on the play. The expectation now is that he starts and has a bigger role against Gray.
Garcia’s regular season splits make him appealing in this spot. He homered 30 times, with 27 of those coming against right-handed pitching, and he posted a .283 average with an .864 OPS versus righties.
He has also handled Gray well in limited chances, going 4-for-10 with a double, a homer and a 1.200 OPS against him. Gray has allowed only 16 homers in 2026, but with the short porch at Yankee Stadium, Garcia at +493 is a live option.
Pete Crow-Armstrong rounds out the card. He had a rough Game 1 against the Padres, but he gets another shot against Nick Pivetta in Game 3.
Pivetta has allowed just two home runs in eight outings this season, and Crow-Armstrong is 1-for-3 against him in his career. Still, the Cubs star brings plenty of pop.
He hit 45 home runs in the regular season, including 34 against right-handed pitching, and posted a .973 OPS against righties.
Crow-Armstrong also closed the regular season strong, batting .288 with four home runs and a .977 OPS over the final two weeks. With Chicago’s season on the line, he’s the kind of bat worth betting on to answer back.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
George Lombard Jr Just Gave Yankees Fans A New October Name
George Lombard Jr. gave the Yankees exactly the kind of jolt October can deliver, and he did it in a place where history tends to linger. In Game 1 of the American League wild-card series against the Red Sox, the rookie shortstop became the youngest player in Yankees history to collect a postseason hit, then kept swinging with the kind of confidence that stood out in a lopsided win.
Lombard finished 3 for 4 with two runs scored as New York rolled to a nine-run victory, a performance that instantly adds another name for fans to watch as the pressure rises. The Yankees now have a chance to close out the series in Game 2, and Lombards emergence only gives the club more reason to feel good about where this October story is headed. [Read more 🡒]
Yankees Capitalized On A Red Sox Decision Fans Will Debate
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The Yankees made sure the debate did not stay theoretical for long. After Tolle gave way to left-hander Erik Miller, Ben Rice jumped on the matchup and delivered a solo home run, the kind of swing that turns a managerial call into a talking point all over again. The larger question hanging over the night is whether Boston moved on Tolle too quickly for the setting, or whether the bullpen decision simply reflected the pressure of protecting a game that was already slipping into the late innings. [Read more 🡒]
Red Sox May Have Created A Huge Roman Anthony Problem For The Bronx
Roman Anthonys return for the Boston Red Soxs final regular-season game looked like a significant step toward getting one of their most talented young hitters back on the field, but it did not come without concern. Anthony had already missed much of the season because of a right hand injury, and even in a game that was supposed to help set the tone for October, the hand became an issue again.
Red Sox manager Chad Tracy said the hand was uncomfortable and flared up on a check swing, which is the kind of development no team wants to hear this time of year. For the Yankees, the bigger question is not just whether Anthony can play, but whether Boston can count on him being anywhere close to fully functional if these clubs end up seeing each other in the postseason. [Read more 🡒]