Tarik Skubal is already sitting near the center of the winter market, and the early chatter points to the same familiar heavyweights: the Mets and Dodgers.
Free agency opened to all 30 teams on Monday evening, and while the first stretch of the offseason has been slow across the board, the bidding for Skubal has started to take shape. Jon Heyman of The New York Post wrote on Wednesday that the Mets are interested in making a run, though he noted they still haven’t decided how aggressive they’re willing to be with the Juan Soto contract already in place two years into its record-setting run.
New York has other business to handle, too. The club needs help at the back of the bullpen and around the infield, which makes any huge swing more complicated.
The Dodgers, by contrast, are better positioned to shop for a premium arm without having to solve as many roster issues at once. They’ll need to re-sign or replace several leverage relievers - Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen and Kris Bubic - and could also look at second base as a possible upgrade over Tommy Edman and Alex Freeland.
That gives them more flexibility to focus on a few targets instead of spreading resources across multiple holes.
Both the Mets and Dodgers have generally leaned toward massive annual salaries rather than long-term pitching commitments. The Dodgers made an exception for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose 12-year deal began in his age-25 season, and also went to five years for Blake Snell.
Otherwise, their rotation additions have tended to stay shorter. The Mets have been even more restrained under David Stearns, never signing a pitcher - or any non-Soto free agent - for more than three years in his first three offseasons running baseball operations.
That leaves room for another club to try to crash the party with a longer offer, and the Cubs have been mentioned as a team to watch. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote on Monday that Chicago will be in on Skubal, though the price is expected to climb well beyond $300MM. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has already said this offseason will be centered mostly on pitching.
Chicago does have the financial room to make a real run. Its projected $168.9MM luxury tax number for 2027 is almost $100MM below where it finished the 2026 season, according to MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen.
Even so, the Cubs have never signed a player for more than the $184MM Jason Heyward deal from more than a decade ago, and Skubal could end up commanding more than twice that figure. Their history suggests a move more in the mold of Trevor Rogers, Michael King or Freddy Peralta than a record-setting splash, but that Heyward number won’t define the franchise forever.
The Yankees remain in the conversation as a less obvious possibility. They’ve shown no hesitation about long-term pitching contracts in recent years, landing Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Max Fried on deals ranging from six to nine years going back to the 2019-20 offseason.
All three have worked out well so far. They’re considered a longer shot because they don’t really need a starter, but they aren’t completely out of the mix either.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote this week that the Yankees would at least consider a push for Skubal and could then trade from their rotation if they landed him. That could mean moving one or two of Ryan Weathers, Will Warren and Clarke Schmidt. McDaniel also noted that the Yankees may move one of those starters anyway as they look to upgrade their position-player group, most likely at second base, third base or catcher.
The Tigers are another team worth watching, at least in the background. McDaniel suggested they may keep tabs on their former ace in case the market softens enough to create a discounted opportunity. That seems unlikely with so many big-market teams circling, but it does fit the way Detroit has handled the rotation market under president of baseball operations Scott Harris.
Last offseason, the Tigers jumped on a three-year deal for Framber Valdez at a massive $38.333MM average annual value when he was still unsigned into February. They made a similar, cheaper move for Jack Flaherty the year before. A Skubal deal in that range feels far less likely, though a reunion with former rotation mate Casey Mize could make sense on a two- or three-year contract with an opt-out after his rough post-deadline stint in San Diego.
For now, the market is still in its opening phase, but it shouldn’t stay quiet for long. There are three and a half weeks left before the inevitable December 1 lockout, and next week’s GM Meetings are expected to matter more than usual. Heyman wrote on Thursday evening that some people in the industry expect Skubal to come off the board early.
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