Carlos Rodon gave the Yankees enough to keep Wednesday from slipping away completely, but the bigger story out of Minnesota was the one showing up on the radar gun.
Rodon worked six innings in New York’s 5-4, 13-inning loss to the Twins at Target Field, allowing two runs on four hits with three walks and five strikeouts over 102 pitches. He left with the Yankees down 2-0, and the offense eventually bailed him out for a while - Anthony Volpe’s two-run double in the ninth tied it, and New York later went ahead in the 10th and 11th before Minnesota answered both times. Victor Caratini finished it with a pinch-hit single in the 13th, with Tommy Nance getting the win and John Schreiber taking the loss.
The defeat dropped the Yankees to 88-64. Tampa Bay also won later Wednesday, so New York sits 4.5 games back in the AL East with 10 games left. The Yankees have already locked up a postseason spot, but the final rotation picture now has division and October seeding attached to it.
On paper, Rodon’s line still looks strong. He has now gone 25 straight starts allowing three earned runs or fewer, a Yankees franchise record. He’s also stacked back-to-back quality starts, and Wednesday marked his fifth quality start in 15 outings after he threw 6 1/3 innings against the Mets in his previous turn.
The issue is less about whether Rodon can get through a start and more about how quickly he gets to the version of himself the Yankees need when the games tighten up.
The early numbers were the part that stood out. Through his first 55 pitches, all five of Rodon’s offerings were below their season-average velocity. His four-seam fastball checked in at 92.6 mph against a 94.4 mph season average, while the slider was down 1.4 mph, the changeup 2.3 mph, the sinker 1.9 mph and the curveball 1.1 mph.
That’s the kind of spread that grabs attention because it wasn’t just one pitch lagging. New York leaned heavily on the four-seamer and slider early - 45% and 29% of those first 55 pitches, respectively - so nearly three-quarters of the mix came from two pitches that were both well below their usual levels.
Rodon didn’t stay in that lane all afternoon. His fastball averaged 92.3 mph in the first inning, 92.8 in the second and 92.4 in the third, then jumped to 94.9 mph in the fourth. He also reached above 95 mph later in the outing.
Afterward, Rodon said he started a little “tight” before loosening up.
That matters because of the season he’s already had to navigate. He opened the year on the injured list after offseason surgery to remove a bone spur from his left elbow, then went back on the IL with left elbow inflammation before returning Aug. 18 after a rehab assignment. The postgame information did not say the tightness was an elbow issue, and there was no new injury reported after the start.
Still, the Yankees have enough reason to monitor how Rodon looks early in his next outing. The calendar is getting short, and there isn’t much room to sort out whether Wednesday was just a one-off fluctuation or something more persistent.
The results since his return have been excellent. Since coming off the injured list in mid-August, Rodon has a 2.40 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and a 31-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 30 innings.
Against the Mets on Sept. 11, he threw 93 pitches in 6 1/3 innings, walking one and striking out eight. Five days later, he needed 102 pitches to cover six innings, and only 59 of them were strikes.
That’s the tension for New York right now: the run prevention is still there, but the route to it has gotten a little more demanding.
Rodon’s next start is expected to come during the Yankees’ four-game home series against Tampa Bay, which begins with a split doubleheader Tuesday at Yankee Stadium. New York is 3-6 against the Rays this season.
That could wind up being his final regular-season start, and it will give the Yankees another look at whether Wednesday’s early dip was just a blip or something they need to worry about as October approaches.
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