Ben Rice has gone from useful depth piece to one of the Yankees’ most important October bats, and the timing couldn’t be bigger. With Aaron Judge out of the roster, Rice suddenly sits near the center of New York’s lineup as the American League Division Series opens against the Rays.
That role is no longer theoretical. In the Wild Card Series sweep of Boston, Rice went 5-for-9 with two home runs.
He did most of his damage in Game 1’s 9-0 rout at Yankee Stadium, finishing 4-for-5 with a grand slam and six RBIs, a total that tied a Yankees postseason record. He closed the regular season with 41 home runs, 97 RBIs and an .897 OPS, then kept swinging the same way in October.
The Rays, at least on paper, should be a team Rice can handle. He was tougher on Tampa Bay than any other AL East opponent this season, hitting .356 with a .431 on-base percentage, an .889 slugging percentage and a 1.320 OPS in 13 games.
Seven of his 41 homers came against the Rays, and he drove in 12 runs. No other Yankees regular comes into the series with a better offensive line against the division champs.
That sets up a fascinating Game 1 at Tropicana Field on Saturday night, where Tampa Bay went 55-26 this season. The Yankees were 2-5 there, and the Rays won seven of 13 meetings overall. New York will send Gerrit Cole to the mound against right-hander Drew Rasmussen, who brings a 16-5 record, a 2.67 ERA and 174 strikeouts into the matchup.
But Rasmussen has already shown he can make Rice uncomfortable.
Rice went 1-for-10 against him in the regular season, striking out five times, and his one hit was a home run. Rasmussen leaned hard into cutters against him, throwing the pitch 41% of the time, well above his 27% cutter rate against left-handed hitters. He paired that with 23% changeups, while only 15% of his pitches to Rice were four-seam fastballs.
That matters because Rice has been one of the best four-seam hitters in baseball this season. Including the postseason, MLB’s Statcast data credits him with a .347 average, an MLB-best .855 slugging percentage and 17 home runs against four-seamers. His plus-25 runs created against the pitch also leads the majors.
Tampa Bay’s broader pitch mix lines up with that same idea. The Rays threw Rice 25% changeups and 21% cutters from their right-handers, while their lefties used changeups and sweepers 24% of the time each.
Only 18% of the pitches he saw from Tampa Bay were four-seamers. That fits a staff-wide pattern, too: the Rays led MLB by throwing changeups 21% of the time this season, and their four-seam usage sat below 28%, one of the lowest rates in the majors.
Rice has still done damage against those offerings. Baseball Savant has him at .276 with a .414 slugging percentage against cutters and .286 with a .486 slugging percentage against changeups this season. He also owns a .970 OPS against right-handed pitching, sixth-best in MLB.
His breakout against Boston showed he can still do damage even when pitchers try to work around his strength. Both of his home runs in Game 1 came on 97 mph sinkers, one from left-hander Erik Miller and the other from right-hander Brayan Bello. He also lined a 110 mph double off a 99 mph four-seamer from Payton Tolle.
After that game, Rice put his approach plainly: “All the consistency that you had in the regular season, you’ve just got to carry it right over into the postseason,” Rice said.
Judge sees that carryover as a major reason the Yankees believe in Rice’s October value.
“He’s been incredible,” Judge said. “If we’re going to go anywhere and finish off what we want to do, Ben Rice is gonna be a big part of it.”
Boone has described Rice as a hitter who thinks through matchups in detail, studying pitch shapes, movement and what opponents like to do. Rice said his own prep includes video, movement profiles, count patterns and how pitchers attack left-handed hitters.
“I want to see everything,” Rice said. “I want to see everything about the pitcher.
I watch their outings. I look at how their stuff moves, how they throw, how they attack left-handed hitters, how guys are swinging at their stuff, and what their timing looks like.
Anything.”
That preparation will be tested immediately. Rasmussen held the Yankees to a .182 average and .495 OPS across four starts this season, going 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA against them.
For New York, the question isn’t whether Rice needs another six-RBI night. It’s whether he can force Rasmussen out of the plan that has worked against him, get to more fastballs, or survive long enough to expose Tampa Bay’s bullpen.
If he does, the Yankees get the kind of edge they’ve been leaning on all month. If he doesn’t, Game 1 could hinge on the one matchup Tampa Bay has already solved.
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