Aaron Judge’s calf injury has left the Yankees staring at more than a simple Wild Card Series dilemma. The bigger concern now is whether their captain will be ready for any part of October at all.
Judge has been out since Sept. 16, and the latest update from Aaron Boone didn’t do much to clear the fog. Before Tuesday’s doubleheader, Boone said he had been told Judge’s right calf injury was a moderate strain. Judge also got a platelet-poor plasma injection Monday.
That timeline matters because the Yankees are already locked into the postseason picture. New York split its doubleheader with Tampa Bay, getting eight scoreless innings from Carlos Rodon and a two-run homer from Cody Bellinger in a 2-0 win in the opener before the Rays clinched the AL East with a 6-1 win in the nightcap.
The Yankees still finished with the top AL wild-card berth at 90-67 and will host the Wild Card Series beginning Sept. 29.
Boston currently holds the next wild-card spot, which could set up another Yankees-Red Sox meeting if the standings hold.
Judge, meanwhile, is stuck on the sideline again after another stop-and-start season. He returned Sept. 8 after a fractured rib kept him out for more than three months, then went 4-for-23 with one homer in seven games before feeling tightness in his right leg during the first inning against Minnesota on Sept.
- He left that game in the sixth inning, and the Yankees placed him on the injured list Saturday, retroactive to Sept.
Because he cannot return until Sept. 27, the Yankees have almost no runway to see what they have. Boone has not ruled out a postseason appearance, though he also made clear he is not counting on it.
“I’m not expecting it, but I’m not ruling it out either,” Boone said.
The medical calendar is what makes this so tricky. Boone did not give a specific grade for the strain, but moderate calf strains are generally treated as second-degree injuries. A published rehabilitation guide from the Boston Sports Medicine & Research Institute says those injuries are partial muscle tears that usually take three to six weeks before a player is back to full activity.
That puts the Wild Card Series out of reach if the recovery follows even the shorter end of that window. The longer end stretches toward Oct. 28, which would land after a possible seven-game ALCS and into the World Series.
The postseason schedule only sharpens the issue. Judge first felt the calf problem Sept.
- Three weeks from that date is Oct. 7, when MLB has Game 3 of the AL Division Series.
Five weeks lands on Oct. 21, one day after a possible ALCS Game 7. The ALDS begins Oct. 3 and can run through Oct. 10, while the ALCS opens Oct. 12 and can last through Oct.
Even if Judge gets healthy enough to be active, the Yankees still have to answer another question: whether he can actually run, field and swing at playoff speed. The same rehabilitation guide notes that full-speed running comes later in the process, which means the Yankees would have to treat his return to the batter’s box and his return to right field as separate checkpoints.
For now, the Yankees are trying to build their playoff plan without a firm return date for their captain. That’s a real problem because Judge is the center of everything in the lineup, and his absence has pushed the load onto hitters who were supposed to work around him.
Ramos put it plainly.
“That’s our guy. He’s the president of this team,” Ramos said.
The Yankees have managed to survive without Judge, at least in the regular season sample so far. They are 49-42 in 91 games without him and 41-25 in the 66 games he played, with Tuesday’s split against Tampa Bay included in those records.
But that only tells you they can keep winning games. It does not tell you what happens when the pitching gets sharper in October.
Judge’s own line shows how much the injury has interrupted him. He is hitting .241 with 18 homers and 41 RBIs, and his seven-game return from the rib injury produced just four hits and 13 strikeouts in 23 at-bats.
The Yankees do still have pieces to work with. Bellinger and Ben Rice remain key run producers, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is back healthy, and the club still has to sort through outfield options involving Ramos, Jones and Trent Grisham, who has dealt with a hamstring problem. If Judge is available only as a hitter, those lineup choices get even more complicated.
For now, New York’s immediate job is straightforward: set a roster for Sept. 29 and wait to see whether Judge’s recovery can line up with any part of October.
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