Aaron Judge is getting closer, and the Yankees can feel it.
The clips out of Anaheim this week gave fans the kind of jolt they’ve been waiting on for months: Judge back in the box at Angel Stadium, looking in on pitches from Max Fried under the lights, then later running the bases and moving with freedom. After three months of waiting, that’s enough to get the optimism flowing.
It should. Judge is nearer to a return than he’s been since May, and the calendar is lining up in a way that matters.
The Yankees open a homestand Sept. 8, they’re sitting on the top American League wild-card spot, and they’re still chasing the Rays in the East. Getting their best hitter back right now would be huge.
But the good news comes with a catch.
The first thing that needs to be said is that the Fried video showed less than the buzz suggested. Judge was there, yes, and he was facing live pitching, but he did not swing.
He was tracking pitches, which is a meaningful step in the rehab process, but it is not the same as proving the rib can handle a full cut. There was no protective screen in front of Fried, either, which tells you this was never a real live at-bat situation.
In other words: encouraging, but not the final hurdle.
That matters because the rib is still the gate. Tracking pitches is one thing. Letting it rip is another.
The other warning is less about the video and more about history. Analyst Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report put it bluntly in a forecast of the 2026 playoff picture: “Aaron Judge returns next week, albeit with some rust,” Miller wrote. “… Basically, if you’re expecting Judge to come back and go yard in three of his first 10 plate appearances, his history suggests you’re going to be disappointed, even against the pitching staffs of the Rockies and Mets.”
That isn’t just speculation. Judge’s returns from injury have followed a familiar pattern, and it’s not exactly instant fireworks.
After coming back from a fractured wrist in 2018, he put up a .675 OPS over his next 12 games. Following a calf injury in 2020, he finished the year with a .548 OPS. And after the toe injury in 2023, he opened with a .685 OPS in his first nine games before his bat started to climb back toward normal.
That’s the part the Yankees have to keep in mind. When Judge is right, he’s been well north of a 1.000 OPS this season.
But when he’s coming off an injury, the first stretch can look nothing like the player they’re used to seeing. It can take a couple of weeks before the timing comes back.
And New York doesn’t have the luxury of waiting around forever.
Judge has not played since May 31, when a stress fracture in his right first rib shut him down. The injury traces back to a diving play in the outfield in late April, and at 34, with the rib area responsible for generating so much of his power, the recovery has been handled carefully.
The Yankees have gotten by with Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham and Spencer Jones in the outfield, and the pitching and depth have helped keep them afloat. But the offense has felt the absence. During Judge’s time out, New York has sat near the bottom of the majors in runs, OPS and batting average, and the lineup has lacked the right-handed force he brings.
The standings only raise the pressure. The Yankees are 80-60, 3½ games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East and ahead of Boston for the top wild card. That’s the difference between shaping the postseason path and scrambling for it.
There’s a reasonable case for getting Judge back now, even if the first week or two is messy. If he’s going to need time to shake off the rust, better to start that clock before the stretch run gets even tighter. Judge has also said he hopes to return without a minor league rehab assignment, which would send him straight back onto the big league stage.
So the Yankees are left with both truths at once. Judge is close.
The signs are real. But the video, the injury history and the timing all point to the same warning: the comeback may not look clean right away.
For the Yankees, the next two weeks will tell them which version of this story they’re getting.
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