Pavel Dorofeyev’s move to the Rangers came out of nowhere in June, but the early numbers around his new role are almost comically modest for a player coming off a massive seven-year, $11 million AAV extension. The projection crowd is treating him like a solid piece. The track record says he might be a lot more than that.
That gap is what makes the early outlook so interesting. Mainstream fantasy and projection outlets are clustering Dorofeyev in the mid-60s for points, with Evolving-Hockey and The Athletic both pegging him at 64 and NHL dot com and The Hockey News at 65. The basic idea is straightforward: with Artemi Panarin gone, the Rangers may not have a true point-per-game engine, so the offense gets spread around and a handful of players land in the same neighborhood.
But Dorofeyev has spent the last few years showing a very clear pattern of growth.
He was a third-round pick in 2019, and his KHL numbers after the draft didn’t scream future star. Once he got to North America, though, the production started climbing.
His run with the Silver Knights in the AHL opened with 9-3-13 in 24 games, then jumped to 27 goals, 25 assists, and 52 points in 63 games. After that, he split time between the AHL and NHL, posting 7-2-9 in 18 games with Vegas and 9-8-17 in 32 AHL games.
By 2023-24, Dorofeyev was a full-time NHL player, and the results backed up the rise. He finished with 13-11-24 in 47 games, along with a 60.25 GF%, 51.92 CF%, and 55.81 xGF%.
He also took just 97 shots and scored on 13.4 percent of them. The next season was better across the board: 35-17-52 in 82 games, plus a 52.4 GF%, 54.24 CF%, and 57.71 xGF% while shooting 13.8 percent on 254 shots.
Then came last season, his best one yet. Dorofeyev put up 37-27-64 and shot 16.1 percent on 230 attempts.
His underlying numbers stayed strong too, with a 54.39 GF%, 55.24 CF%, and 56.12 xGF%. That consistency matters.
He’s been productive at 5-on-5, he’s won his minutes, and he’s done it without relying on one weird outlier stretch.
The shot profile is the part that really jumps off the page. Dorofeyev has been a machine in the metrics that matter for pure goal scoring, ranking at the 90th percentile or better among forwards in hardest shot at 93.33 mph, 80-90 mph shot attempts, 70-80 mph shot attempts, high-danger goals, high-danger shots on goal, midrange goals, midrange shots on goal, and long-range shots on goal.
That’s not random. That’s a real weapon.
Yes, he has scored 33 power-play goals, and some people will point to that as a product of the setup around him in Vegas. But he’s joining a Rangers power play that, at its peak, is easily one of the league’s best. And even if the exact playmaking environment changes, a shot like Dorofeyev’s tends to travel.
The one thing that could slow the climb is the usual Broadway adjustment chatter that follows any new arrival with a contract attached. But this doesn’t look like a player who needs to be protected from pressure. The Rangers have been missing a true volume shooter, and Dorofeyev fits that need cleanly.
Mika Zibanejad led the team with 215 shots on goal last season. The year before, Artemi Panarin led with 224.
In 2023-24, Panarin was all the way up at 303. Dorofeyev should have every chance to push that category hard.
A reasonable early guess is that he gets to at least 260 shots on goal, makes a serious run at 40 goals, and clears 70 points for the first time. Vegas decided not to pay him. That’s the kind of call that can age badly.
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Fox did not exactly slam the door on his future when the questions started coming during the season, but he also did not offer the kind of firm commitment that quiets a market like New York. Since the year ended, his tone has been a little more encouraging, with a sense that the Rangers still have enough to build on, though the real issue is whether the organizations direction matches that optimism. [Read more 🡒]