In the midst of a roster shake-up, the New York Rangers face a pivotal decision regarding Alexis Lafreniere. As the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, is Lafreniere destined to be a cornerstone of the franchise, or is it time for the Rangers to consider moving on, potentially before the NHL Trade Deadline on March 6?
It's a tough spot for the Rangers. At 24, Lafreniere should be a key player alongside stars like Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox. However, his performance has fallen short, particularly with a dip in offensive production over the past two seasons.
The Rangers don't have to make a move before the deadline, but they need to decide if Lafreniere fits into their top-six forward plans moving forward.
Peter Baugh from The Athletic discussed this on the Rink Rap podcast, highlighting the dilemma: "The Rangers need to evaluate if Lafreniere's value is at its peak or if it might decline further. That's a tough call, especially since his performance hasn't boosted his trade value after an impressive 2023-24 season."
There are teams interested in giving Lafreniere a fresh start, recognizing his potential as a former top pick who netted 28 goals in 2023-24. However, trading him now might not yield much return, and the Rangers don't want to part ways if they believe he can still shine in New York.
The decision hinges on whether the Rangers think his value will rise, remain steady, or decline. If it's the latter two, a trade becomes more appealing.
A Lafreniere trade might be more feasible in the offseason unless the Rangers' management feels strongly about moving him during this retooling phase.
His contract isn't a barrier either. Lafreniere is in the first year of a seven-year, $52.15 million deal, signed after a strong 2024 postseason.
With a $7.45 million annual salary, the contract is manageable, especially with the salary cap increasing. He also has no trade protection until July 1, 2027, when an eight-team no-trade clause kicks in.
Baugh noted, "There's no immediate pressure to trade him. His contract is reasonable for a second-line winger, especially with the cap rising."
Lafreniere's situation is complex. Supporters cite his strong underlying metrics, like a 53.95 percent expected goal share, and his skill, highlighted by his breakout 2023-24 season. Critics point to his inconsistent results and lack of a complete game.
Last season, Lafreniere's numbers slipped to 17 goals and 45 points. This season, he has 12 goals and 32 points in 57 games, tying for third on the Rangers with 26 even-strength points. Yet, with the Rangers at the bottom of the standings and set to miss the playoffs again, his performance feels lackluster.
Moments like his three-assist game at the Winter Classic or a two-goal outing against the Penguins hint at his potential but seem more like exceptions than the rule.
Baugh added, "Both the player and the team need to reflect. It's a shared responsibility. I doubt Lafreniere intended to underperform, but accountability is needed on both sides."
As the Rangers navigate this critical juncture, they must decide whether to trade Lafreniere or keep him as part of their core, either before March 6 or in the offseason.