The Rangers may have let a very costly situation sneak up on them.
With the NHL’s salary cap projected to climb to $127.5 million by 2028-29, the league’s financial landscape is shifting fast. The cap sits at $104 million this season and is set to jump to $113.5 million next July, a surge that changes the way players and agents will attack contract talks. New York chose not to extend its eligible core this summer, and that decision could matter most with Will Cuylle.
Cuylle has become one of the organization’s clearest development wins. A second-round pick in 2020, the 24-year-old winger has already established himself as a regular and earned a two-year, $7.8 million bridge deal with a $3.9 million AAV after his entry-level contract. The Rangers also gave him an alternate captain’s “A” in the preseason, a strong sign of how much the staff and front office value him.
He’s heading into a pivotal stretch. Cuylle turns 25 in February and is only two seasons away from unrestricted free agency.
While plenty of comparable wingers around the league locked in longer deals this offseason, the Rangers stood pat. That leaves Cuylle in a position where another strong year could dramatically change the price tag.
The production is already there, and it’s been remarkably steady. Cuylle has posted three straight durable seasons: 13 goals and 21 points as a rookie, 20 goals and 45 points in his second year, and 20 goals and 38 points last season. Just as important, he’s been available every night, which is no small thing for a player whose game is built around contact.
That physical edge has shown up in the numbers, too. Cuylle logged 249 hits in his rookie year, 301 in year two, and 302 last season, all while averaging just 14:22 of ice time per game. Give him consistent top-six minutes and regular power-play time, and he has a real shot to push toward 30 goals and 60 points.
He also brings the kind of frame teams pay for: 6-foot-3, 216 pounds, with enough skating ability to matter in transition. NHL EDGE had him at the 61st percentile in skating speed, and he also ranked in the 80th percentile in both 20 to 22 mph bursts and 18 to 20 mph bursts.
The opportunity in front of him is clear. The Rangers have five forwards locked into the top six - Mika Zibanejad, J.T.
Miller, Alexis Lafrenière, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Gabe Perreault - leaving one spot that belongs to Oliver Bjorkstrand for now. Bjorkstrand looks more like a temporary answer than a long-term fit on the second line.
That opens the door for Cuylle, along with recently signed Eeli Tolvanen and maybe Liam Greentree, who was assigned to the Hartford Wolf Pack. Tolvanen has a similar track record to Bjorkstrand, and in eight seasons he’s averaged 18 goals and 37 points, compared with Bjorkstrand’s 21 and 48. Greentree would need a major surge in Hartford to jump into the top six, but it remains a possibility if he forces the issue and no one else claims the job.
For Cuylle, though, this is the moment to make the leap. Last season was the best of his career by expected goals percentage.
Over the last three years, Evolving-Hockey has him at 48.57, 48.36, and 49.83 xGF%. His puck-possession numbers have been fairly steady as well, with CF% marks of 49.4, 49.64, and 48.62.
That’s where the Rangers’ timing starts to look risky.
If Cuylle thrives in a larger role, his camp will have plenty of leverage. He could push for a short-term bridge that takes him right to unrestricted free agency, right as the cap posts its biggest single-season jump, or he could land a long-term deal with a massive AAV built around the new market.
There’s always danger in waiting, and in this case the risk is obvious: a player with Cuylle’s mix of size, durability, physicality, and finishing touch could end up getting paid far more than the Rangers would have liked simply because the cap is rising so sharply. New York had a chance to get ahead of that. Instead, it may have created a much pricier problem for itself.
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