One bad night in Newark usually isn’t enough to trigger a full-scale reset, even after a 7-1 loss. But after nine games, the Rangers have seen enough to know something needs to change on the back end. The most obvious fix is to break up Marcus Pettersson and Sean Durzi, a pair that has been leaned on heavily in the defensive zone and has not held up well in that role.
The problem isn’t that either defenseman has been awful on his own. The issue is the job they’ve been asked to do.
Pettersson and Durzi have taken the overwhelming share of defensive-zone starts, mostly against top competition, and the results have been rough. Through nine games, they’ve been on the ice for 29 high-danger chances against at 5-on-5, which works out to a little more than three per game.
The goals against haven’t piled up yet, but without Igor Shesterkin in the picture, that could shift quickly. No disrespect to Dylan Garand, but until proven otherwise, he’s not Shesterkin.
There’s some context here, of course. Pettersson and Durzi have been starting a lot of shifts in their own end, and they’ve been used after faceoffs in difficult situations.
Their offensive-zone start rate sits at just 44 percent overall, and only 34 percent after faceoffs. That’s a hard assignment for any pair, especially when the matchup work is coming against top lines.
The contrast with the other pairings is pretty stark. Vlad Gavrikov and Adam Fox are getting 61 percent of their shifts in the offensive zone and 54 percent after faceoffs.
Alberts Smits and Braden Schneider are at 39 percent in the offensive zone and 39 percent after faceoffs. The Rangers’ faceoff distribution tells a similar story: 101 offensive-zone draws, 114 in the neutral zone, and 125 in the defensive zone.
They’re spending time in the offensive end, but not turning that into a flood of shot attempts.
That’s part of a bigger theme with this team. The Rangers are emphasizing quality over quantity, and the numbers reflect it.
They want dangerous chances, not just volume. The tradeoff is that they’re not getting many stoppages in the offensive zone, and they aren’t generating enough looks from the middle of the ice to keep opponents honest.
So if the current approach is staying in place, the defense pairs should be adjusted to fit it better.
The simplest move is to split Pettersson and Durzi. That’s something that was worth doing in camp and the preseason for balance, and after nine games it looks even more necessary. The current setup has the second pair doing too much heavy lifting in a role that doesn’t suit it.
There are already some small samples worth noting. Smits has logged 12 minutes with Fox, and that pairing has been above 50 percent in shot share and high-danger chance share.
Gavrikov and Durzi have played about eight minutes together and are also above 50 percent in both categories. Pettersson and Schneider have only six minutes together, so that sample doesn’t mean much, but the current pairings have enough evidence behind them to suggest a shuffle.
If the team is working from the current top six, the cleanest alignment looks like Smits-Fox, Gavrikov-Durzi, and Pettersson-Schneider. Each pairing would blend a strong defensive-zone presence with a puck mover, and Fox has already shown he can work with just about anyone. Smits also looks like a long-term fit next to him.
That naturally leads to the Scott Morrow question. He’s not likely to get in unless there’s an injury or a trade.
And if the Rangers do make a move, the names most likely to come up are Durzi and Schneider. Schneider is the more obvious candidate on paper, though the organization clearly values him.
Durzi and Morrow bring similar skill sets, which could make Durzi the more logical piece to move.
Either way, both players could bring back real value, possibly enough to address some of the center concerns for the medium and long term. The bigger question is fit over the next three to five years.
If neither one belongs in that picture, move both while the return is still there. If only one does, keep that one and deal the other.
The organization has enough defense depth in Hartford to cover the gaps.
Even if the Rangers do make the pairings change, though, that won’t solve everything. The team still needs more pucks on net, and it needs more of those shots to come from medium-danger areas instead of always hunting for the perfect look. Better teams will eventually choke off the passing lanes and make life miserable if the Rangers stay this predictable at 5-on-5.
That’s why this isn’t an either-or situation. The Rangers need to change the defense pairs, and they need to add some shot volume too.
The first fix is available right now. The second takes more work.
Start with the pairs, see if that puts Pettersson and Durzi in better positions, and then go from there.
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