Expectations around Gabe Perreault are climbing fast, and for good reason.
After finishing his first full NHL season on a strong note, the New York Rangers forward is already being penciled in by a large chunk of the fan base as a 50-point player next season. In a recent Forever Blueshirts poll on X and Facebook, 55.8 percent of voters said Perreault will clear that number.
Another 25.4 percent put him in the 40-49 range, while 12.6 percent saw him landing between 30 and 39 points. Only 6.2 percent expected 29 points or fewer.
That confidence comes after a season that turned once Perreault found his footing. He began last year bouncing between Hartford and Broadway, but eventually carved out a regular place in the Rangers’ lineup.
From there, the production arrived. He finished with 12 goals and 15 assists for 27 points in 49 games, and 19 of those points came over his final 23 games.
That stretch included his first NHL hat trick and his best run of hockey as a rookie.
The late surge also gave Rangers fans a cleaner look at why the organization views Perreault as a steal at No. 23 overall in the 2023 NHL Draft. The 21-year-old now has 54 NHL games under his belt, including five at the end of the 2024-25 season, but he still hasn’t played a full season at this level. That’s a big reason the projection range remains wide.
Still, the case for the upside is easy to make. Bill Vernold pointed to Perreault’s career production as a reason the floor already looks fairly solid.
“He has 27 pts in 54 career games,” Vernold wrote on Facebook. “Assuming he just treads water at that pace, he gets over 40 points in a full season. I think he’s in the 20+ goals and 50+ pts conversation if he stays healthy.”
That pace works out to 42 points over an 84-game season, which lines up with the group of fans who picked the 40-49-point range. Ken Zegel went a step further, though he added a couple of important qualifiers.
“The talent in there,” Zegel wrote. “If he stays healthy and if his team is at least modestly successful, no reason he’s not easily 50+. Both are big ifs, though.”
Health will matter, but so will deployment.
Last season made that clear. Through his first 26 NHL games, Perreault had only eight points and spent much of that time in a secondary role, mostly skating with Will Cuylle and Vincent Trocheck after his December recall.
Once he moved up next to Mika Zibanejad and Alexis Lafreniere, the whole picture changed. His ice time increased, his touches increased, and the points followed.
That trio clicked hard. Zibanejad, Lafreniere and Perreault logged roughly 261 minutes together at 5-on-5 and scored 14 goals in that span.
So Mike Sullivan’s top-six choices could end up deciding whether Perreault lands in the 40s or pushes beyond 50. Pavel Dorofeyev’s arrival gives the Rangers another top-line option after he scored 72 goals over the past two seasons with the Vegas Golden Knights, which could push Perreault further down the lineup.
Even that wouldn’t necessarily sink his numbers. Natural Stat Trick showed the Rangers controlled 55.02 percent of expected goals with Perreault and J.T. Miller on the ice together last season, compared with 52.36 percent alongside Zibanejad.
The power play may be the bigger swing factor. Perreault had six power-play points last season, with three goals and three assists, despite averaging just 1:19 per game on the man advantage.
When Miller was injured in March, Perreault’s role expanded and he joined Adam Fox, Zibanejad, Lafreniere and Trocheck on the top unit. He responded with a power-play goal and assist against the Philadelphia Flyers on March 9, in a game where the Rangers scored three times with the extra man.
Once Miller returned, Sullivan moved him back onto PP1 and sent Perreault to the second unit. Perreault still made an immediate impact, assisting on a Noah Laba power-play goal in his first game after the switch.
That PP1-versus-PP2 split came up often in fan discussion around the poll, and it helps explain why so many voters landed in the 40s instead of the 50s. Jonny Lazarus of Daily Faceoff even went higher on X, saying Perreault will score 60-plus points in 2026-27.
James Ladalia tied his own projection to role and usage, while keeping his expectations in check.
“If he gets consistent L1/PP1 minutes, he can definitely get to 50+,” Ladalia posted on X. “But for now I want to temper expectations and say C (40-49 points).”
Perreault’s track record with the USNTDP, U.S. World Junior teams and Boston College suggests he has long produced when given more responsibility. The real question now is whether Sullivan gives him the minutes and power-play opportunities to turn that into a 50-point season.
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